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Analysis: Here’s What We Know So Far About How Changes In Climate Affect The Pandemic
By Sarah Pitt, University of Brighton
Why is the reported number of Covid-19 cases in Europe increasing now? Many countries ended their full lockdowns at the beginning of the summer, but it wasn’t until the fall that most places began to see a significant increase in the spread of the virus again. The reopening of schools and universities led to a greater mix of people from different households, but could falling outside temperatures also play a role?
We know that more people get colds and flu in the winter (colds can be caused by types of coronavirus), but there are several potential reasons for this. It’s often attributed to the fact that people spend more time indoors when it’s colder, coughing, sneezing, and breathing with each other.
You are more likely to choose the option of riding a crowded bus or train than walking or biking to work in cold and wet weather. Another theory is that people produce less vitamin D when there is less sunlight and therefore have a weaker immune system.
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From RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta Adhmhaidin, Dr. Illona Duffy firmly believes that taking vitamin D as protection against the virus is beneficial.
However, studies have shown that the annual increase in colds and flu coincides particularly with when the temperature outside and the relative humidity inside are lower. Influenza viruses survive and are transmitted more easily in cold, dry air. Therefore, it is reasonable to think that the same may be true for the Covid-19 coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, which has a similar size and structure.
Laboratory experiments with coronaviruses and similar viruses have shown that they do not survive well on surfaces when the temperature and relative humidity are high, but a comfortable room temperature could be an ideal environment for them to last for several days. And at refrigeration temperatures (4 ℃) and low relative humidity, they could last a month or more.
It just so happens that there have been repeated reports of Covid outbreaks among workers in meat packing factories, operating in these kinds of conditions. However, these factories also contain large numbers of people working together yelling to be heard over the noise of the machinery, which evidence suggests that the virus is more likely to spread. Their shared living conditions can also encourage transmission.
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From RTÉ Radio 1’s Today With Claire Byrne, Brian O’Connell talks to meat factory workers about Covid-19 and the conditions in their workplaces.
The lessons from the other coronaviruses that have emerged during the 21st century (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV) also tell a slightly different story. A climate monitoring study during the 2003 Sars epidemic in China suggested that the peak of infections occurred during spring weather conditions. (There was no way to confirm this through follow-up studies as the virus later became extinct.)
Regular outbreaks of Mers also occur in the spring (March to May) in the Middle East. However, this may have less to do with the weather and more to do with the biology of the camel. Humans can acquire Mers from each other or from camels. Young camels are a major source of infection and new animals are born in March.
The southern hemisphere during winter
We can also observe what happened in the southern hemisphere during the winter there. South Africa has reported more than 700,000 cases and experienced a large spike in July, but New Zealand controlled the infection very well and had fewer than 2,000 COVID-19 cases.
These two countries are very different in many respects, so it is not so useful to compare them directly. But it appears that the colder weather during July and August probably wasn’t the main factor in deciding their infection rates. New Zealand appears to have kept the spread of SARS-CoV-2 at bay due to geography, the quality of the health system, and the effectiveness of the public health response. I could have done it no matter the weather.
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From RTÉ Six One News, a report on Melbourne emerging from a strict Covid lockdown on October 21
Early data from Australia suggested that low humidity would be a factor to consider and was a better guide to the risk of spikes in Covid-19 than temperature. However, in Melbourne, there was a large outbreak in July coinciding with a cold spell. This led to a strict lockdown, although it was only fully eased in October. In general, it seems like a good idea to be prepared for more Covid-19 cases during the colder months. But the only thing we’ve learned for sure from SARS-CoV-2 is that new viruses may surprise us.
We also know that coming into close contact with other people provides an opportunity for the virus to spread, regardless of the weather. Therefore, we must maintain physical distance between people who do not live in the same household and continue to wear face coverings indoors whenever possible. Unfortunately, we will only learn exactly how changes in the climate affect the pandemic if we live it.
Sarah Pitt is Senior Lecturer in Microbiology and Practice of Biomedical Sciences and a Fellow of the Institute of Biomedical Sciences at the University of Brighton. This article originally appeared on The Conversation.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the opinions of RTÉ
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