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As Ireland grapples with its second COVID-19 lockdown in seven months, there have been some questions about whether or not the severe restrictions are working.
Taoiseach Micheal Martin confirmed earlier this week that Level 5 restrictions would be introduced across the country for six weeks starting at midnight Thursday.
It was the second time in just two weeks that the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) recommended tighter restrictions.
It came after a large increase in the number of COVID-19 cases across the island in the past two weeks. Just last week there were 8,936 cases in Ireland. There were an average of 1,281 COVID-19 cases per day.
This is not the first time we have experienced a nationwide lockdown. Former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar announced the first set of severe restrictions on March 29.
At this stage, the number of COVID-19 was not as high as it is now. For the week ending Sunday, March 29, there were 1,709 cases. This equates to a daily average of only 244 cases.
Furthermore, there are also a number of other things that are different now compared to the last crash.
When the lockdown was introduced last Thursday, Dublin and Donegal had been on Level 3 restrictions for weeks. Cavan, Donegal and Monaghan, meanwhile, entered Level 4 the previous Thursday. The rest of the country had Level 2 restrictions.
In March, things were closed overnight.
Additionally, schools were closed on March 12 due to fears that the virus would spread from schools to homes. This happened two weeks before Ireland’s first blockade.
Since then, NPHET has said that schools pose no threat. So while the rest of the country closes, schools will remain open during our second closure. Whether or not this will have an impact on the number of cases in the coming weeks remains to be seen.
But did the first shutdown work and reduce case numbers? This is what the data tells us.
Block number one was introduced on March 29. For the week that began Monday, March 30, there was an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. The number of cases increased to 2,379 that week (39% more).
The average daily number of cases also increased to 340 per day compared to the previous week.
The highest number of COVID-19 cases was also registered during the first week of confinement. On Friday, April 3, there were 424 cases.
The number of cases practically doubled during the second week of the first confinement. There was a 96% increase in cases during the week beginning April 6.
However, there was a reason for the sharp increase in the COVID-19 numbers. Due to a backlog of tests in Irish laboratories, some samples were sent to a German laboratory for analysis.
On Friday April 10, the Health Department confirmed: “To date, some 14,000 samples have been returned from German laboratories, of which 1,035 have tested positive.
“With the latest German figures included, there are now 8,089 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Ireland.”
The day before, there were 6,574 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ireland. For this reason, the COVID-19 figures for that week are slightly skewed and the cases may have occurred in previous weeks.
With German lab test results continuing to come back during the third week of lockdown (the week that started April 13), the number of daily COVID-19 cases continued to be quite high.
There were a total of 5,596 cases that week (up 20%). The final cases from the German laboratory were confirmed on Sunday, April 13, when only 48 results were delivered.
NPHET praised the progress Ireland was making on April 16 with Professor Philip Nolan, not that the growth rate was “close to zero”, as it confirmed that the figures from the models suggested that we had reached a “plateau” .
When we entered the fourth week of confinement, things began to improve. The daily average number of COVID-19 cases dropped to just 573 compared to 799 the previous week. There were 28% fewer cases with only 4011 reported.
However, there was a large discrepancy in the number of cases reported that week. On Thursday, April 23, for example, there were 936 cases. That Saturday, there were only 377. On Sunday, this increased again to 701.
The fifth week of lockdown saw a dramatic 44% decrease in the number of cases. Only 2,244 cases were reported that week. The daily figures did not exceed 400 in a single day. In fact, some days the case numbers reached 200 for the first time since the first week of lockdown.
On Friday, May 1, we had the fewest cases since April 1, with only 221 cases reported. This coincided with Leo Varadkar confirming that Ireland would remain in strict lockdown for another three weeks.
People also began to feel that there was some light at the end of the tunnel when the government unveiled a five-stage reopening plan.
The sixth week of lockdown began on May 4 and coincided with another drop in the number of COVID-19 cases. The daily average dropped to 213 cases per day. Only 1,490 cases were reported for that week (34% less).
There was widespread relief on Thursday, May 7, as the number of daily cases fell below 200 for the first time since early March. There were only 137 cases this day and 156 the next.
Although the numbers had dropped substantially, CMO Dr. Tony Holohan implored people not to become complacent.
He said: ‘We have achieved our goal of suppressing the spread of the disease, it was not easy for anyone, but there is no doubt that our collective effort has saved lives.
“These weeks are as important as the first weeks of our response. Our behaviors are crucial to maintaining our progress and keeping the breeding number below one. ‘
And it seems that Dr. Holohan’s message remains the same. He has continually encouraged us to keep our distance, wash our hands, and be aware of the virus.
What the data shows is that in the space of six weeks during the first shutdown, Ireland was able to dramatically reduce the number of COVID-19 cases.
Public health officials hailed the decline in the number of cases and the growth hit zero after just three weeks.
But, as we acclimate to our second yar block, will we be as successful as during the first set of restrictions? Will starting points, schools, and people’s attitudes affect virus suppression this time around? With the high number of cases in recent weeks, will six weeks be enough?
Only time will tell.
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