A week of stalemate, with both sides demanding that the other change their attitude, ended today when the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier arrived in London for intensive talks.
The London government may insist that the EU “blinked first” because Barnier promised to “step up” work on legal texts, and that seemed like a move to give in to warnings from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson last weekend.
But now the EU side is working on the assumption that for all his bluster, Johnson cannot risk a no-deal exit. UK companies tell you they are simply not ready for no-deal mayhem.
And the new Conservative MPs from the Midland and Northern constituencies fear that tens of thousands of lost jobs will spell a sudden end to their political careers.
But time is very short now, with less than 10 weeks to go until the December 31 deadline, when the UK effectively ends its “commercial membership” in the EU. The UK’s political membership in the EU ended on January 31 last.
The atmosphere is better, but the problems are still very divisive.
Barnier and his British counterpart, David Frost, agreed to meet over the next weekend, even through Sunday if necessary. Thereafter, they will meet as often as necessary for the next several weeks.
The EU agreed that the two sides will work on the legal texts. Each side made friendly, positive noises about the possibility of a deal.
The reality is that both sides remain poles apart on the issues that matter. These include guarantees from the UK that they will not undermine the EU with lower labor and environmental standards, while also avoiding generous UK state aid to businesses to confer an unfair advantage.
The issue of EU fishing vessels, including the Irish, gaining continued access to UK waters after Brexit remains a major symbolic threat to success. Engagement here would give real hope.
But the most difficult of all sticking points is how to govern a deal through a robust dispute resolution system. The EU will want any UK regulator to have real independence and the teeth to enforce its will, not just a body that can cluck disapprovingly in the background.
Accidents can happen when one is on the edge of the abyss
So a softer tone and resumption of conversations are encouraging, but don’t guarantee anything. In Dublin, Taoiseach Micheál Martin wisely said that his political instincts tell him that a deal is more likely than no deal.
That’s true. Don’t forget, however, that the EU will provide “nice language” to help Mr Johnson sell whatever deal they can agree to.
But the EU is now working on the assumption that Johnson needs a deal and they are prepared to play hard, conceding little. That leaves both sides still on edge, and accidents can happen on edge.