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Two weeks have passed since Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan first urged the Government to move the entire country to Level 5 restrictions to suppress the second wave of Covid-19 infections.
On that occasion, the advice of the National Public Health Emergencies Team (NPHET) was that the rate of spread of the virus had accelerated, that all metrics related to the virus had deteriorated.
His letter clearly stated that immediately moving the entire country to Level 5 restrictions (from Level 2 at the time) would be the last chance to suppress the virus while keeping schools and universities open, protecting the most vulnerable, and non-Covid 19 health services are maintained.
During the intervening two-week period, a further 12,500 Covid-19 infections were confirmed, the 14-day incidence of the virus per 100,000 people more than doubled in 19 different counties, the number of Covid-19 patients treated in hospital increased by 122% from 134 to 298, and the virus’s breeding number (or R) increased sharply from just over 1 to 1.6 outside Dublin.
All the numbers related to the pandemic in Ireland went from bad to worse.
Professor Philip Nolan, who is the chairman of the large group of mathematical modelers advising NPHET, highlighted that the momentum behind the spread of the virus had become so strong that we now likely have between 1,800 and 2,500 new cases of Covid-19. up to date. at the end of this month.
As the days passed and the number of new cases grew to nearly 1,300, with two weeks to go until the end of the month, it became increasingly clear that the Level 3 restrictions, which the Government had opted for instead, they were never going to be enough.
He made it clear that much of Christmas might have to be effectively canceled for people.
Nor would NHPET’s previous recommendation, that four weeks of nationwide Level 5 restrictions could get the virus back under control, wouldn’t be enough.
In his most recent letter to the government, sent last Thursday, the medical director upped the ante. I had already publicly announced that Halloween could not proceed normally, that we could not have children and families coming out the door to collect on Halloween night.
But this time he made it clear that much of Christmas might have to be effectively canceled for people if the government did not move very quickly toward Level 5 restrictions for the entire country.
Dr. Holohan also made it clear that things had deteriorated so rapidly that it would now take six weeks to bring the virus back to reasonable levels in time for the holiday season.
He told the government that we are aiming to have between 450 and 600 Covid-19 patients in the hospital by the end of the month and that the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care would triple by that date.
Before all of this, NPHET had been repeatedly explaining that if people cut their social contacts in half, then the virus’s most important breeding number (R) would also be cut in half and thus control the virus.
If the restrictions could be imposed and maintained for six weeks, the number of new cases would drop to 50-100 per day by early December.
It seemed like a simple enough equation, but it was proving impossible to achieve. It had become clear that it would require the imposition of the highest restrictions, as well as new rules and sanctions to achieve the desired effect.
Dr. Holohan explained in his letter last Thursday what the result would be if the R number were reduced to 0.5 (which is what we would achieve with a sudden block) for six weeks compared to just three weeks.
After three weeks of Level 5, he said the number of expected cases would drop to between 250 and 300 a day, but would quickly skyrocket to 1,000 a day by mid-December and continue to rise. That would greatly threaten our Christmas festivities.
But if the restrictions could be imposed and maintained for six weeks, then the number of new cases would drop to 50-100 per day in early December and remain low throughout the Christmas period, before increasing to about 300 per day. early January. That would save Christmas.
And that is exactly what the Government has decided to try to do now.
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