Brussels confident post-Brexit trade deal increasingly likely



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Britain’s statement that its trade talks with the European Union had ended was met with bewilderment in Brussels, especially since an agreement is closer than ever. In substance, the negotiations are in a better position from Britain’s point of view than before this week’s summit.

After a succession of difficult negotiations on fishing between Michel Barnier and the EU coastal states, French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged for the first time that his country’s fishermen would lose some of their access to British waters.

“Will the situation be the same as today? No, sure, our fishermen know it, we know it and we will be by their side. Can we accept a Brexit that sacrifices our fishermen? No, not the same, ”he said.

“Without a doubt it will be with conditions, perhaps with a fee. But it must be long-term because we must give each other visibility ”.

On a level playing field guarantees for fair competition, Downing Street knows that Michel Barnier is preparing to make a new compromise offer next week. The two sides have made progress on state aid or subsidy policy as Britain has begun to commit more seriously to the terms of reference of its national regulator.

EU leaders insisted during the summit that Britain’s level playing field guarantees must be strong and enforceable, leaving Barnier’s room for maneuver limited. And it is still resisting the demand by British chief negotiator David Frost that the two sides must begin negotiating the legal text of a deal before a clear landing zone has been identified.

Although Downing Street stepped up the rhetoric with his statement that the trade talks were over, Johnson’s own statement left the door open for further talks. Frost’s rejection of Barnier’s offer to speak in London next Monday is less dramatic than it sounds because no conversations were actually scheduled and Barnier made his offer in a letter Friday morning.

The two men agreed to speak next week, but the EU side may have to make a public gesture to satisfy Johnson’s honor and be able to resume negotiations. Time is running out and real obstacles remain on the way to a deal.

The Downing Street team in charge of the negotiations, including Frost, are inexperienced and prone to serious errors of judgment, as in the internal market bill that violates the treaty. And Barnier faces a tough challenge balancing the need for a compromise with the determination of EU leaders not to give Britain an unfair competitive advantage.

But beyond the rhetoric and Downing Street opera shows, the two sides are closer than ever on the bottom and the most likely outcome remains an agreement.

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