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Coalition party leaders concluded their meeting with the medical director, where they discussed a recommendation that the state should move to an effective national lockdown for four weeks in an attempt to control the Covid-19 numbers.
A senior government source told The Irish Times that the cabinet was not going to decide to move the entire country to level 5.
The source said there would be a lift from the current state level, leaving open the possibility of moving to the Level 4 state.
A cabinet meeting will be held this afternoon to approve any changes to the controls.
The National Public Health Emergencies Team (NPHET) recommended on Sunday that the entire country move to the highest level of restrictions on the government’s Covid-19 roadmap amid concerns about the spread of the disease and the increase of the number of hospitals.
In a letter sent by NPHET to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly on Sunday, seen by The Irish Times, the health agency warns of a “significant and deteriorating” epidemiological situation.
“Nphet cautions that it is vital to do everything in our power now (it is now underlined in a letter) to halt the current trajectory at the national level and suppress the virus to a low level of transmission before the winter months.”
However, various government sources indicated there that there is strong resistance among the three parties to introduce such severe restrictions.
Tier 5 would see a ban on all home visits and social or family gatherings, and only essential retail stores would be allowed to open. People are advised to stay at home, except for exercise, less than 5 km from their home.
Only six people could attend funerals and weddings. Unlike the previous closure announced last March, schools, nurseries and institutions of higher education would remain open, with additional protective measures. Pubs, restaurants, and cafes would move to offer only take-out services, no organized outdoor gatherings or sporting events.
Dr. Tony Holohan chaired Sunday’s NPHET meeting, returning to his role as medical director after stepping aside for a period for family reasons.
He is expected to reiterate the rationale for the recommendation, which took the political system by surprise, in his meeting with Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan.
Consternation
There was consternation in government circles last night when the news of the NPHET councils broke, given the social and economic impact of the months of severe restrictions earlier this year.
Several sources were highly critical of NPHET for the sudden move, which had not been communicated to the government in advance. Two major sources described the move as “irresponsible”, while other senior figures said it was “completely bizarre.”
A meeting of an oversight committee, chaired by the country’s top official, Martin Fraser, involving the general secretaries of other relevant departments, is likely to be held later to discuss NPHET’s advice. The committee is tasked with considering how the public health councils can be applied in practice.
A cabinet subcommittee meeting on Covid-19 is expected to take place subsequently and a full cabinet meeting has also been arranged for later.
Ministers and senior officials believe a decision to immediately begin a new lockdown is unlikely on Monday. Some sources said they expected the level of restrictions to increase, possibly to Level 4 in Dublin and Level 3 three across the country, but that it was unlikely to move to Level 5.
Resistance to the move is strong at Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, while Green Party leader Eamon Ryan is understood to be concerned about any move to Level 5 for the impact it would have on the economy and society.
Three high-level sources said an immediate effort was needed to increase the ICU’s capacity in the system by making arrangements with private hospitals, as was done in the spring, although it was not used.
Impact of the restriction
HSE CEO Paul Reid tweeted Monday morning that there was obvious concern about Covid-19 trends and numbers.
“But we also know the impacts of severe and regular restrictions in society on public health, well-being, mental health, and the economy. The level 5 recommendation to the government should also be considered in this context, ”he said.
Higher Education Minister Simon Harris said he doubted “many of us could get a night’s sleep” after news of NPHET’s recommendation emerged.
“So many concerns and questions on people’s minds. Leaks and speculation don’t help. Today you need to bring clarity. Until then, let’s focus on what we can control and what we can do: keep our distance, reduce contacts, wear face covers, ”he tweeted.
Dr Mary Favier, former president of the Irish College of General Practitioners that is part of NPHET, said the “unavoidable truth” was that a lockdown was needed to protect the country’s vulnerable healthcare system.
“The reality is that if we continue as we are, if you or I had a serious traffic accident in November or if we needed emergency heart surgery, there may not be an intensive care bed for you or me,” he told RTÉ. Tomorrow Ireland.
“Family doctors are concerned about what this winter will be like. It is not just a fear, it is a reality, “she said. The health system was already under pressure with cases of Covid and not Covid, said the GP.
‘Political question’
Fianna Fáil’s TD Jim O’Callaghan said the Covid-19 response was a “political question that should be answered by weighing the current and future threat posed by Covid versus the current and future threat posed by the restrictions.”
“We cannot answer that question considering only Covid,” he tweeted on Monday.
Dublin and Donegal currently have Level 3 restrictions, with additional measures restricting pubs and restaurants to outdoor seating in the capital only. The rest of the country is at level 2.
In the past month, the five-day case average, a key metric tracked by NPHET, went from 99 per day to 463.
The national incidence rate of the virus has tripled from 31 cases per 100,000 in 14 days to 108.9 per 100,000. Dublin’s incidence rate has reached 172.8 cases per 100,000, and Donegal recorded 189 cases per 100,000 in the past 14 days.
Another trend that has added to the concern of public health officials is the steady increase in the number of Covid-19 admissions in hospitals and intensive care.
The number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 has risen from 40 to 141 in the last month, with 21 patients now in intensive care units.
Professor Anthony Staines, an academic and public health expert at Dublin City University, said it was clear that “Covid-19 is out of control and increasing across the country.”
“That has been clear for some time, but whether we should start with Level 5 is a different question,” he told Newstalk Breakfast.
“I think the public is much less concerned about this than some elements within the business community and at least one element within the Cabinet, we are going to need to do something because the number of cases is constantly increasing, the number of admissions is constantly going up” .
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