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There could be 1,200 to 1,300 cases a day and 400 people in hospital by the end of this month, based on current projections, warned Professor Philip Nolan.
Professor Nolan, chair of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) epidemiological modeling advisory group, said the number of cases has increased by an average of 4 percent per day since it reached a daily low of nine cases on June 23.
Since then, the numbers have risen from 12 cases on July 1, 40 cases on August 1, 131 cases on September 1, and 470 cases on Friday.
This has been reflected in an increase in hospitalizations from 12 on August 3 to 121 on October 1.
The latest figures from NPHET, released Friday, showed there was one death and 470 reported cases. A total of 117 people are hospitalized and 21 in intensive care units. Nearly 87,000 tests were performed last week and the positivity rate was 3.2 percent.
Professor Nolan suggested that the restrictions imposed in Dublin and Donegal “may be beginning” to work as the restrictions in Kildare, Laois and Offaly did, but added that “the virus is spreading almost constantly in the rest of the country. “.
Professor Nolan explained that “the epidemic, measured in detected cases and hospitalizations, has been growing exponentially, at the same rate, since July. Collectively, we have had too many social contacts. The virus is transmitted and cases and hospitalizations increase ”.
He alluded to the fact that deaths are still relatively low compared to spring and emphasized that mortality from the virus “is not insignificant and significantly higher than influenza. The only way to protect the vulnerable is to significantly reduce the level of circulating virus in the community ”.
We must not ignore or discount the growing number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. We monitor hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and with great sadness deaths, and we know where these figures will go if we do not repress the transmission of the virus. 1/9 pic.twitter.com/ys2YirPyLW
– Professor Philip Nolan (@President_MU) October 2, 2020
In his Twitter thread, he concluded: “We must not ignore or discount the growing number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. We monitor hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and, with great sadness, deaths, and we know where these figures will go if we do not suppress the transmission of the virus.
“This is not intended to scare people. He asks us to be honest with ourselves. And it is not inevitable. On the contrary, if we redouble our efforts to minimize our social contacts, we keep our distance when we are with others and we stay at home if we do not feel well, we can overcome this. ”
‘Serious concern’
On Friday, Acting Medical Director Dr. Ronan Glynn said that the increase in the number of cases is a “cause for grave concern,” so NPHET recommends that no more than two households meet at any one time.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin warned that a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic is unfolding in Europe, as he expressed his condolences to the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and his wife Melania, after the couple tested positive.
“I can say as a preface to this, I wish President Trump and his wife Melania the best in terms of wishing them a speedy recovery,” Martin said on the sidelines of a summit of the 27 leaders of the European Union in Brussels.
“It is difficult for them to have tested positive for Covid-19 and we wish them a speedy recovery. It reminds us all of the current prevalence of this virus. “
Trump’s challenging Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, announced Friday night that he and his wife, Dr. Jill Biden, had tested negative. Trump and Biden held a socially estranged debate Tuesday.
The 27 EU leaders met to discuss the severe economic impact of the pandemic, among other issues, at a summit that had been delayed for a week because its president, European Council President Charles Michel, was forced to enter quarantine after exposure to the virus.
Martin said the leaders had agreed to work on greater coordination in the procurement and distribution of vaccines currently in development, and on a risk classification system in different countries that would align travel rules across the EU.
“Today in the European Council it is very, very clear that a second wave is coming in Europe”, warned Mr. Martin, describing a “very similar pattern, younger people are infected first and then a higher incidence among the population in general”.
“There is a lot of concern about the economic and health impact of Covid-19 and also about how long it will continue,” he added.
“The story in Ireland is not unique, it is quite similar to the pattern in Europe. It requires more coordination on several fronts. “
Nearly 1,000 people in Northern Ireland tested positive for coronavirus on Friday in what is the largest daily increase since the pandemic began.
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