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As the country struggles to suppress the second wave of Covid-19 infections, Acting Medical Director Dr. Ronan Glynn has warned that trends in hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and deaths related to Covid-19 they tend to lag behind the headlines’ case numbers.
That means, he said, we can expect to see more of each of them in the coming weeks.
The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) is seriously concerned about infection trends in some counties and how rapidly the situation has been changing.
Dr. Glynn detailed how a single case of infection that was traced eventually spread to 56 other people through a series of direct and indirect social interactions involving homes, extended family gatherings, sports activities, and other social contacts.
The message is that there is nothing safe when it comes to this infection. No place and no one can become complacent.
Right now, there are particular concerns about four counties – Cork, Galway, Monaghan, and Roscommon – where levels of confirmed Covid-19 infections have risen rapidly.
Cork, for example, has registered 66 cases of coronavirus per 100,000 inhabitants during the last 14 days. Actually, that’s below the national average, which is 84 cases per 100,000.
But what alarms NPHET about Cork is not so much the actual number, but the rate at which it has been increasing. It has been increasing for about three weeks and has increased by as much as 103% in the last seven days.
That’s a huge rate of increase. Add to that the news from Dr. Glynn that 70 cases of the disease in Cork in recent weeks have been associated with pubs and restaurants.
Then there is the fact that since Co Cork is such a large place, the relatively low incidence of the disease across the county hides what is actually happening in the city and urban areas, where the increase in cases has been particularly surprising.
The history of Galway is quite similar. A huge county where the spread of the disease in the city and larger towns is much faster than in rural areas. Again, Galway’s total 14-day illness incidence of 62 cases is below the national average.
However, like Cork, it has been growing for a few weeks and has rocketed 94% in the last week alone. Here, the rise has been driven by significant Covid-19 clusters associated with youth and house parties, according to Dr. Glynn.
Co Monaghan on the border is particularly concerning. Especially after looking at the incidence rate in other border areas.
For example, the incidence rate in Donegal’s Lifford-Stranorlar local election area is the highest in the country with 336 cases per 100,000 people registered a week ago.
It also emerged over the weekend that the local Dundalk-Carlingford electoral area, which is also right on the border (with Northern Ireland), also has one of the highest 14-day incidence rates in the country with 180 cases per every 100,000 inhabitants.
The latest figures provided by Dr. Glynn show that Co Monaghan now has 116 cases per 100,000 people.
However, the most surprising thing is that that number has increased by 108% in just seven days. If that trend is not reversed soon, the county will be in trouble, and the prospect of further social and economic restrictions is a real possibility.
Co Roscommon also stood out as a significant risk area. At first glance, one might be tempted to ask, why?
After all, Roscommon’s 14-day incidence rate is well in line with the national average of 84 cases per 100,000 people.
The real concern, however, is the trend rather than the headline number. The incidence of the disease in this largely rural county has increased by 123% in the past seven days alone.
It is another example of exponential growth in the spread of the virus that unfolds before our eyes.
NPHET is watching very closely and will have an obligation to take action if it gets out of hand.
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