‘A lot of young people could have to die’ if we were to follow the herd immunity strategy, says Prof Nolan

Leading PUBLIC HEALTH figures have spoken out very strongly against Ireland adopting any strategy similar to “herd immunity” to tackle Covid-19 and made it clear that it is not a strategy to be adopted here.

Following it would ignore the long-term health effects of some people who develop Covid-19, would mean that many young people would die, and would make it harder to prevent older and higher-risk populations from getting sick and dying from Covid-19.

This concept has been mentioned frequently since the beginning of the pandemic, and it basically suggests that lockdowns would be avoided by allowing the virus to spread between communities while putting security measures in place to protect those most at risk of becoming seriously ill. or die from Covid-19.

The hope is that, eventually, a natural immunity to the disease will develop.

In the early days of Covid-19, it appeared that the UK government was pursuing such a strategy, but that quickly changed as lockdown measures were introduced amid a sharp increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Having been raised on the Oireachtas Special Committee response on Covid-19 earlier, public health officials at tonight’s Department of Health briefing spoke out strongly against the idea of ​​seeking herd immunity.

The chair of the NPHET epidemiological modeling advisory group, Professor Philip Nolan, said tonight that there is no guarantee that herd immunity will work and that it is ethically questionable.

“The problem with this whole strategy is, firstly, that there is no guarantee that we will increase herd immunity significantly by allowing the disease to spread through young people,” he said.

Large numbers of young may have to die for enough infections to occur to approach it.

Professor Nolan also said that he said that “even if it were ethically” appropriate to suggest that more groups at risk of Covid-19, such as the elderly, isolate themselves from the rest of the community while such a strategy is pursued, there is no guarantee that do not get the disease.

“Certainly, I could never advise that we take the kind of explicit risks in adopting this kind of strategy that allows this disease to spread through the young with some, in my opinion, a vain hope of protecting the elderly,” he said . “And also with the unproven hope that it will make the population immune to future infections.”

HSE Clinical Director Dr. Colm Henry said the evidence is not substantiated in people who have sustained immunity after contracting this virus. Referring specifically to safeguards in nursing homes, even the strongest defenses would not protect residents there if the virus were allowed to spread rampant in the community, he said.

Dr. Henry said that isolating older people and letting them “fend for themselves” is “simply not acceptable and has no place in any civilized society.”

Acting Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ronan Glynn added that the strategy ignores the growing evidence on the long-term effects of Covid-19 in people of all ages.

“This disease has consequences for people of all ages. It is certainly not a strategy that will be adopted in this country, ”she said.

These comments echoed comments on herd immunity made today in the Oireachtas Committee.

Dr Johann Giesecke, Sweden’s former chief epidemiologist and a senior official at the World Health Organization, said there is no “100% effective way” to allow younger populations to contract the disease and also prevent its transmission to women. older people, particularly in nursing homes.

He said: “Sweden never had herd immunity as a goal or strategy, but the strategy of protecting the elderly and vulnerable while allowing some spread in the population has had the by-product of herd immunity.

“I do not agree with the zero covid approach. I don’t think it is possible or feasible as a solution. We would need to do it in every country in the world. Otherwise it can’t work. New Zealand managed to go case-free for 102 days and then had a big outbreak. “

With reporting by Christina Finn and Michelle Hennessy from the Department of Health