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PUBLIC HEALTH EXPERTS have indicated that NPHET is unlikely to make a decision regarding possible additional restrictions for Dublin until the end of this week.
There is speculation that additional restrictions could be put in place if the cases in Dublin, which is currently at Level 3, do not stabilize.
However, health officials are cautiously optimistic. Pointing out concerns about the increase in Covid-19 cases in Dublin a week before the government formally announced the restrictions may have helped suppress the spread of Covid-19, said an NPHET source.
“It’s like turning an aircraft carrier around,” said another senior health official. TheJournal.ie, noting that the numbers continue to rise.
The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) will meet Thursday to discuss whether additional restrictions are required. NPHET will have a better idea of how Covid-19 is spreading in Dublin by then.
Dublin – which has seen an increase in cases since the end of August and is currently at level 3 – has the highest 14-day incidence rate in the country at 138 per 100,000, while Tipperary it has the lowest at 16.9 per 100,000.
Louth has the second highest incidence rate in 14 days (101.6) and Leitrim is third (96.7).
Right above Tipperary, Sligo (18.3) and Kerry (17.6) have the second and third lowest rates in the country during the last 14 days.
Of the 3,353 Covid-19 cases reported from September 7 to midnight Sunday, 97 resulted in hospitalization and 9 cases were admitted to the ICU.
The average age of the cases in the last 14 days is 33 years, with 21.68% of the cases between 15 and 24 years.
Of the 3,353 cases reported since 7 September, more than half (1,860) are in Dublin.
A complete county-by-county breakdown is available here:
Source: HPSC
Ireland’s 14-day incidence rate (70.4) is currently higher than Italy (34.3) and more than double that of Germany (26.3), according to the European Center for Prevention and Control. Disease Control (ECDC).
However, Ireland’s rate is still lower than that of Spain (310.9), France (192.6) and the United Kingdom (72.8).
Source: ECDC
It is clear from the data, as has been noted in recent weeks, that cases are increasing across Europe.
Speaking on RTÉ’s Claire Byrne Live on Monday, Professor Anthony Staines predicted that if cases continued to rise, there could be a lockdown across Europe after Christmas that would last for three months.
“If we get to that, it represents a failure. We don’t need to go there, but we have to act now, ”he said.
Data released by the Health Department last week showed the first national breakdown of Covid-19 incidence by local area.
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In Dublin, Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart had the highest 14-day incidence rate nationally at 189 per 100,000.
NPHET members are also closely monitoring the average five-day incidence in Ireland.
If the incidence of cases decreases, this decrease will be seen more quickly in our five-day average than in our 14-day incidence rate.
Public health officials are encouraged by Dublin’s five-day incidence today, TheJournal.ie understands.
The rate was 10 per 100,000 per day on September 14 and is currently 10.7, an indication that the infection rate may be decreasing; the rate has been between 10 and 11 this week. “It’s just a sign of hope,” said a source. TheJournal.ie.
Source: Department of Health
An important consideration when NPHET meets on Thursday will be whether additional restrictions are needed not only for Dublin, but for other access points in other parts of Ireland.
“It will really be towards the end of the week before we know if things are looking up or not,” said one NPHET member. TheJournal.ie. “Every day colors the image a little more.”
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