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One of Lenin’s most famous, if not timely aphorisms observes that while not many things can happen for decades, “there are weeks in which decades go by.” At the risk of breaking my own rule of never making a forecast, the next few months are shaping up to remind us of the force of Lenin’s words.
Lenin was well aware of the power of language, of the importance of clear and coherent communication. The old Bolshevik would laugh, or perhaps despair, at the absence of those qualities in handling the Covid crisis on both sides of the Irish Sea. In addition to the mixed, often conflicting messages, there is an obvious determination never to label a lock as a lock. The paradox is that the authorities clearly recognize the importance of the words, but regularly do not find the correct ones or do not put them in the correct order.
It is a golden age for meaningless slogans, for the abuse of language. Today, the Brexit vocabulary is most often described as Orwellian. Clichés abound; We only hear what we want to hear.
Johnson now knows (finally) that there has to be a border on the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland.
At the beginning of the whole regrettable Brexit process, it was loudly pointed out that there were two fundamental truths. First, Britain would be worse off as a result of her departure; the only question is how severe the economic impact would be. Second, leaving the single market and the EU customs union means a border somewhere; the only question is where. It has been fascinating to watch experts and politicians gradually discovering these truths for themselves. And sometimes to claim credit for your discoveries.
Nonsense
Boris Johnson now knows (finally) that there has to be a border in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland. Westminster’s latest nonsense is that it is simply trying to get the EU to make the decision, and therefore to be blamed. He also knows that an economic blow from Brexit is about to add to the costs of the coronavirus.
What I don’t know is whether you are misled enough to believe that those costs can be safely hidden behind those of the virus. His only strategy, as usual, is to abuse the language: the tougher Brexit, the greater the benefits, apparently. As Lenin also said, a lie that is often told becomes the truth.
Johnson is a truth hidden in plain sight: former colleagues, bosses, and friends told us, often in derogatory terms, about his true nature. The surprise that is now being expressed in many quarters about Johnson speaks volumes about our selective deafness.
Johnson said something both accurate and true this week. For that we should be grateful. He said a second blockade would be financially disastrous. Unusually for him, he was putting things lightly. Businesses and businesses that barely grasp the fingernails will be dragged into abrupt bankruptcy by any repeat of what we went through in April or March.
Covid-19 has revealed many things, including that while we are good at linguistic contortions, we are statistically illiterate. Exponents and logarithms are not our strong suit. “I’m not good at math” is a socially acceptable thing to say, as ridiculous as being proud of not knowing how to read.
So it doesn’t make much sense to talk about the non-linear nature of Covid curves, or the ways that a second full lockdown will produce a much worse economic outcome, in a very nonlinear way, than the first lockdown. , however bad it was and still is.
Trifecta
The coronavirus and Brexit will join the US presidential elections in the last quarter of 2020, a trifecta of risks that are impossible to determine, either by themselves or by how they will be combined. To risk another mathematical point, I believe that the individual risks of each of the three elements of the trifecta are multiplicative rather than additive.
Why can’t we be a little more Germanic in terms of our ability to get things done?
Putting them all together has the potential to make things much, much worse. Before we despair, we must remind ourselves that risk is a two-sided coin: there is always the possibility of a benign outcome. Or in fact, things combine to produce a very good result. Maybe it’s just all the new restrictions and increased virus numbers – it doesn’t seem like good and bad risks are equally likely right now.
Britain will either get its agreement to exit the EU or it won’t. Once again, any of the results will cause changes, potentially many, in particular for Ireland. While a deal remains a possibility, it seems unimaginable that both the government and the private sector in all affected countries did not plan for a bad outcome. However, survey evidence from relevant companies suggests that preparations are often noted by their absence.
The state’s ability to prepare for known events has been called into question by Covid-19: why can’t we be a little more Germanic in terms of our ability to get things done?
Risk and probability can be very subjective. The current pessimistic mood could easily be reversed in an instant with positive news about vaccines or a sudden outburst of rationality in Westminster. If the virus is controlled, economies will recover. If we consider that this will continue well into 2021, the economic and therefore political ramifications will be profound. Either way, a change is coming, a potentially big change. Lenin was right about some things.
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