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When Mark Twain was thought to be on his deathbed in London in 1897, a New York Journal correspondent was sent to inquire about his health.
Twain’s response (often misquoted) was that “the report of my death was an exaggeration.”
The same could be argued about the discussions about the future role of the office at work here over the past week.
The midweek news that Google had pulled out of talks about leasing the new Classification Office building on Dublin Docks, with room for an additional 2,000 employees, sparked a frenzy of comments about what this said about. the future office needs of companies here and even the commitment of companies to Ireland.
The argument is that Covid-19 has catapulted previously slow and tentative movements in many workplaces towards remote work.
Companies that once said it couldn’t be done have had to accept and accept that it can be done, in some cases even discovering that it is just as good, if not better, than having an office workforce.
With this being the case, the argument is that the post-Covid future, as difficult as it may be to imagine at this point, will see many companies withdraw from their leases on large and very expensive office spaces in the city, in favor of having some , many or all staff working remotely, either from home or from shared centers.
It follows that if they do not need staff to work in offices, then those staff do not even need to be in this country and therefore the companies themselves could also leave.
However, in reality, while the Google case could be seen as an indicator of emerging thinking by some large companies, it is certainly too early to declare the office as a concept dead.
Dealing first with the context of Google’s situation, the tech giant’s decision was as tied to time factors as it was to anything else.
It is currently renovating the recently acquired Treasury building near its Irish and European headquarters on Barrow Street, but it won’t be ready for occupancy for several months.
It’s also in the midst of developing a massive eight-building new campus down the road on the former Boland’s Mill site, which will house thousands more workers, but isn’t ready yet either.
Therefore, the Classification Office building was to be a stopgap while the other two developments were completed.
But with most of its staff set to work from home until next summer at least due to the threat from Covid, the urgent pressure on space as the company expands has eased.
It is important to remember that the company still has more than 15 buildings in the city of Dublin in which it can house its more than 8,000 employees.
Therefore, it is unlikely that you will try to exit the commercial real estate market or indeed the country anytime soon.
But Google aside, given everything that is going on right now, even the strongest and most stable companies are in no position to make hasty decisions about their future.
Most are working to survive the consequences of the pandemic, and they do not look much beyond the next few months and next year.
Yes, they may be thinking about potential office requirements down the road, especially if the leases are up for renewal or are expanding rapidly and need additional space.
But few are making a final decision in this particularly turbulent and changing conjuncture.
“What we are hearing from our members is that the whole office space issue is under review at the moment,” said Mary Connaughton, Managing Director of the representative body for human resource professionals, CIPD Ireland.
“There are two key things that go into that: One is the need for additional space for people who are going to return to work, so according to the Return to Work Protocols and the need for social distancing, as groups They return from remote work to the workplace. You need more space.
“The other thing we’re seeing is there’s a review of what we’re really doing with the future of remote work, now that we’ve had it for six months. And the evidence is that it has worked.”
According to Ms Connaughton, CIPD Ireland members are trying to better understand where it has worked, why it has worked and how it can be sustained in the future.
“There are some concerns arising around social connection, collaborative work, the environment that some people who work from home have that need to be addressed,” he said.
“And I think we also know that employees in general are looking for a combined approach, and figuring out what that combined approach looks like is going to take a bit of work.”
“Because that doesn’t mean that if you have a team of six or ten people, half of them could be in the office on Monday and Tuesday and the other half on Thursday and Friday. When you want them together, you actually want them together collaborating and share information, and so that means you need the space to do it. ”
“So in the short term, as long as we are living with Covid-19, we don’t see that many places are actually going to reduce office space, but it is certainly being given a lot of consideration.”
“And then when you find out what the future of remote working looks like, I think in the future it will give us a better idea of what will happen in the office market.”
According to the real estate industry, so far that opinion has been confirmed in the market.
Research by commercial real estate experts, CBRE, shows that the first quarter of the year was the strongest on record and that it was followed in the second quarter by a significant slowdown in activity, which was expected.
“Occupants are primarily concerned about the safety of their staff and everyone who works from home and all that,” said Marie Hunt, CBRE’s executive director and head of investigation.
“So they are not in the mood to make corporate expansion or relocation decisions, and we saw that reflected in the second quarter numbers, with very limited activity.”
“With that being said, there are quite a few legal settlements and settlements that happened over the summer, so the third quarter should be a lot better than what we saw last quarter.”
Ms. Hunt said that many companies have work to do to find out what their future workforce will be, what proportion of their staff will return full-time and part-time, and what that means for them in terms of headcount.
“I think most companies are not in that space yet. Right now they are more focused on getting everyone back to the office safely and I think in the long term we will have to make those kinds of decisions,” he said.
Experts say that the situation for commercial properties nationwide right now is pretty tough, with the vacancy rate climbing just 0.2% to 13.5% in the second quarter, compared to the same period last year, according to data from GeoDirectory and EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services. .
That means there are no obvious signs of a supply / demand mismatch yet, although it’s the early days.
Experts also estimate that there will be no oversupply because unlike the latest property collapse, this time stocks are almost being built to order.
That said, extreme caution is being exercised at this time.
A new report released yesterday by HWBC shows that the Dublin office occupancy level in the first half of the year was 36% lower than at the same time last year.
Potential occupants delayed decisions due to uncertainties raised by Covid-19, HWBC said.
The other important factor in all of this is what the staff want.
A recent survey of 4,300 workers conducted by Amarách Reseach for the Fórsa union revealed that 86% of those surveyed were interested in telecommuting.
And why shouldn’t they? Working from home brings many benefits, such as not having to travel, a quieter environment than the office, the opportunity to live where you want, save time and money, flexibility and more.
But interestingly, more than 80% of those who favored working from home also expressed a preference for a hybrid arrangement.
Equally, that is not very surprising either.
Those who work from home often find it more difficult to separate from work, many do not have the space and some find it alone, and the younger ones in particular enjoy the commitment and camaraderie that working in an office brings.
So it is clear that there will be a change in the way we work in the future. But it is too early to define what that change will bring or simply cancel the office.
We must also take into account the consequences of such an outcome.
Last week, employer group Ibec gave a stern warning about the potential deterioration of our cities if office workers do not return soon.
And Ibec boss Danny McCoy said not enough has been done to win back office workers.
“While schools are back, we still don’t know what the plan is for 50% of office occupancy to come back, because right now we are behind 10-15%,” he told The Business Show Rebooting virtual conference. Ireland.
“And we see from the Central Business Districts that they are dying, so those infrastructures and ecosystems will not be able to resist, I do not know, I would not call it in terms of a week or a month.”
“But we know that structurally enormous damage is being done to our Central Business Districts and to our confidence.”
It is clear then that while the future of work is highly uncertain, the prospects for many depend on what happens.
Because if city offices and big cities die, so will countless small businesses that depend on them.
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