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Here is a sobering statistic.
Almost three years have passed since Shane Duffy lulled the nation into a false sense of security by breaking the deadlock in the ill-fated World Cup play-off with Denmark and, in the interim period, the only competitive outings in which Ireland has scored first are a couple of matches with Gibraltar and the tennis match with Georgia. Green jerseys have never gotten over the stalemate in the UEFA Nations League.
This is in keeping with the theme running through matches with sides of similar or higher standard: the only constant is that Irish teams tend to enter the final stages chasing a deficit.
In the four games that defined Mick McCarthy’s campaign with Switzerland and Denmark, the opposition was 1-0 up going into the final five minutes. His team rallied to tie three of those games.
The pattern of the matches may have been different, but Kenny’s team found itself in an identical position in its double maidenhead. Duffy rescued a point in Sofia and there were chances to do the same on Sunday, but in all scenarios Ireland has found itself catching up.
Next month in Slovakia, they really can’t afford to finish in that position.
Kenny’s work is about a broader, long-term vision geared toward consistent results rather than a short-term quick hit, but those individuals guilty of a dramatic upside-down overreaction from Finland will surely not understand if things go wrong in the future. Bratislava.
There will always be pressure on Kenny at this concert and there are two aspects to his preparation for the all-important meeting in October. They include the lessons you have learned from the 180 minutes of action and factors outside of your influence that could be equally significant.
THE CONTROLLERS
THE ANGLE OF EXPERIENCE: If the last week was really about experimentation to better handle the attacking options for Slovakia, in other words an attempt to accelerate the development of younger weapons, does this mean that there was always a plan to go back to older heads for the knockout game?
It may have meant in Sunday’s trades with Adam Idah and Aaron Connolly replaced by David McGoldrick and James McClean. The injury forced Callum O’Dowda to step aside for Callum Robinson. It is not inconceivable that the final three forwards will be selected for the next match.
McGoldrick will surely start if he’s suitable, but the question is whether Connolly has done enough to evict McClean. Kenny didn’t expect Connolly to back down and join the defensive effort, but there is a risk versus a payoff in this department. The other area where seniority comes into the equation is on the full right.
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Matt Doherty remains ahead of Séamus Coleman in the battle for the right-back spot. Photo: Sportsfile
SPORTS ARCHIVE
DOHERTY’S DILEMMA: The best opportunity created in the overall game against the Finns came from Matt Doherty stepping forward to free Robinson with a perfect pass between the white jerseys.
However, we didn’t see enough of that from the Spurs signing, and there were sloppy moments that raised the question of whether he was one of those struggling to get out of vacation mode. But it’s been a while since he had a sustained career as a right back.
José Mourinho may be planning to use it there, but a troublesome issue for Ireland is the space forged by a defensive disconnect between Doherty and Duffy that is exposing the latter. Remembering Seamus Coleman would be one way to approach that.
Kenny has put up a marker by saying he feels Doherty has been undervalued. Obviously, the Dubliner is likely to be your man in the future. Ireland have a couple of Nations League matches in October after Slovakia, so there will be a significant window to shape a plan for the future. Bringing the skipper back to Bratislava can be an attractive prospect.
THE SYSTEM: Kenny stated Sunday that he is not committed to a particular strategy, and there will be ample time to reflect on the best approach in the coming weeks. You only have a handful of training sessions again before going into battle, so we know there won’t be a radical change to three in the back. The most plausible change is to revert from 4-3-3 to something closer to 4-2-3-1.
This would suit McClean more than Connolly and the more compact core structure would avoid a scenario where a containment midfielder (James McCarthy and Harry Arter) would expose the four behind if they are sucked out of position. The coach noted that the focus in recent memory was to protect the four behind and he clearly wants a more progressive mindset, but Ireland has been open in that area.
Perhaps the sharpness of the matches was a factor, but it is food for thought. Slovakia are trying to keep the ball so it will put Ireland’s form and focus to the test.
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Troy Parrott. Photo: Stephen McCarthy / Sportsfile
SPORTS ARCHIVE
THE WILDCARD OPTIONS: Kenny has manipulated the McCarthy formula and Slovakia’s task will surely focus on the last two games rather than going back ten months. As for the staff, he has basically shown his hand. If there is a Plan B to unravel, it has to involve Troy Parrott or Michael Obafemi.
Parrott’s loan switch to Millwall is fascinating and if he can get rid of the quadriceps problem that cost him a role in the last meeting, then he has attacking versatility that could earn him a seat on the bench. That’s easier to see than Obafemi finding himself at 23, as many as two up front could be tempting if there’s another 1-0-sized hill to climb.
THE MIDDLE FIELD THREE: There is an overlap in this question as it will be influenced by the formations, but Kenny must choose to go with his trio from Bulgaria, the Finnish teams or a combination of both.
His faith in McCarthy is such that it would be a shock if he left him out. Arter won accolades for his contribution against Finland. It may not necessarily be a case of one or the other, but including both creates a choice between Jeff Hendrick and Conor Hourihane. Arguably too early for Jayson Molumby, while Robbie Brady is tied up with the uncontrollable principal.
THE UNCONTROLLABLE
CLUB FORM: Ireland were slow in both games and it would be false to ignore the preseason angle. Duffy and Doherty arrived after time-consuming and heavy-legged transfers at times.
The midfield faltered, and that 4-3-3 outlook is heavily dependent on the energy of the three centers. Kenny is a huge Brady fan, but if he returns to Burnley and finds himself on the bench again, it would be too much of a stretch to imagine the Dubliner as a 90-minute option for Bratislava.
Molumby and Idah are not expected to start the season as a first choice with their employers. Darren Randolph won’t be in action from the start either. Even Coleman has been in and out of the Everton side. If Kenny wants his team to operate at a higher rate, then he will have to rely on those who are presenting regularly, regardless of their preferences.
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Irishman David McGoldrick and Finn Nicholas Hamalainen battle for the ball during Ireland’s 1-0 Nations League defeat. Photo: Lorraine O’Sullivan / PA Wire
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THE ANGLE OF INJURY: Slovakia was terrible against the Czech Republic on Friday, but Covid-related travel restrictions, and then a series of injuries, weakened its hand. In fact, their coach is under scrutiny and they urgently need goalkeeper Martin Dubravka to get rid of an injury problem.
Any setback for Randolph would be a nightmare for Kenny. Oddly enough, it’s hard to argue that any other player is indispensable.
Sheffield United’s trio, John Egan, Enda Stevens and McGoldrick, are quite important as there is no obvious peer-to-peer replacement if one is knocked down.
Duffy is also in this group, but the jury is out on whether this style really suits him. Substitute options Darragh Lenihan and Dara O’Shea might understand the soccer recap, but it would be an incredible game for a rookie international to play.
However, it appears that Ireland has more strength in depth than its opponents.
It’s just a matter of how the new manager chooses to use the options.
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