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The government’s decision to nominate Mairead McGuinness and Andrew McDowell to succeed Phil Hogan as European Commissioner comes after a week of prolonged turmoil at the top of Fine Gael.
The process now moves to Brussels, where the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will interview the candidates before deciding who should be the next commissioner for Ireland and what portfolio they will be assigned.
The expectation at Fine Gael and Government is that McGuinness will be selected. Unlike other competitors, he realized early in the process, or perhaps before, that the crucial audience was not in Dublin but in Brussels, where he has built a formidable reputation and a network of allies in the European People’s Party ( PPE).
Once Hogan resigned, he put them to good use, using contacts at the EPP and the commission to press his case. It was astonishingly successful as, within days, von der Leyen let Dublin know that he approved of McGuinness’ candidacy.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Simon Coveney was just putting his candidacy in motion, concentrating on how he could retain Hogan’s powerful business portfolio. But McGuinness, sensing this folder was gone, was way ahead of him.
Central plank
A crucial, perhaps decisive, advantage she had over Coveney was her gender. Von der Leyen has made gender equality a central pillar of her presidency and this is an opportunity for her to nearly equal the number of men and women in the College of Commissioners. Promptly, she sought the nomination of “a woman and a man” from Dublin.
Privately, the Government understood that there was a considerably greater chance of having a decent portfolio with a woman as nominee. It’s not fair, the Fine Gael men yelled. Hard, the women smiled.
McGuinness’ achievement is all the more considerable given the hostility he faced from the highest echelons of Fine Gael, reflecting a lack of popularity among the parliamentary party at large.
There are people at the party who think Coveney was treated badly
The party’s leader, Leo Varadkar, was less than enthusiastic about his candidacy and, at first, was actively opposed. He put aside thoughts of moving to Brussels quickly and backed Coveney, but it became clear that Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan were wary of sending just Coveney’s name to Brussels given von der Leyen’s request for two.
Frances Fitzgerald came up as a possible candidate, perhaps to block McGuinness. So the name of former Fine Gael economic adviser Andrew McDowell began to circulate as Coveney was dying. Almost a week after Hogan’s resignation, the TDs and Fine Gael ministers were almost pleading with the leaders to move on.
More appropriate
Three other points are worth mentioning. First of all, no one has yet been appointed. The expected portfolio for the Irish candidate – financial services – is, at first glance, more suitable for McDowell, who has just finished a term as vice president of the European Investment Bank, than for McGuinness.
Some fine gamers are amused by the idea that, after interviews, von der Leyen might come to this point of view, but it seems unlikely that McGuinness will suspend any tests now, and furthermore, the commission is a group of politicians, not policy experts.
Second, whatever the sequel is, it will be in Fine Gael. It was a Fine Gael-EPP nomination that turned into a Fine Gael-EPP dispute that lasted all week. There are people in the group who believe that Coveney was treated badly and that Varadkar should have done more for him. That will pass, but it will not be completely forgotten.
The last point is the most significant. Assuming the McGuinness appointment takes place, Brussels will have basically chosen the Irish Commissioner, a total reversal of the established precedent.
It may be one of the future Irish governments, and perhaps even this one, has reason to lament.
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