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British and European Union negotiators will meet in London next week for their eighth round of talks on their future relationship, but neither side expects any progress. Michel Barnier warned this week that there would be no deal unless Britain moved from its current positions on fisheries and state aid.
On Friday night, Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost dismissed Barnier’s claim, blaming the Europeans for the stalemate.
“We have scheduled a lot of time for discussions, as we should at this point in the talks. However, the EU continues to insist that we change our positions on state aid and fisheries if we want there to be substantive discussions on anything else. From the beginning we have been clear about what we can accept in these areas, which are fundamental to our condition as an independent country. We will negotiate constructively, but the EU’s position can realistically limit the progress we can make next week, ”he said.
Subsidy scheme
Boris Johnson was bland on Friday at the prospect of a deal, predicting Britain would “prosper mightily” without one. Earlier, the Spectator’s political editor, James Forsyth, reported that the prime minister would rather not reach an agreement than back down from his refusal to offer guarantees on state aid.
The EU has dropped its demand that Britain continue to comply with European state aid rules, but is convinced that Britain’s subsidies scheme must be part of any deal.
Europeans want to see the essence of the state aid scheme, they want to know what kind of internal enforcement Britain will put in place and they want to discuss a dispute resolution mechanism. Britain insists such details have no place in any deal with the EU, but European capitals have no appetite for allowing British companies to undermine rivals with the help of unfair state subsidies.
Science and steel
They are concerned about how the Johnson government, which aims to make Britain a world leader in science and technology, will subsidize sectors such as artificial intelligence and renewable energy. But they also fear the impact of state aid in industries like steel.
Since the likelihood of no deal appears to be increasing, both sides are considering the future without one and whether negotiations could resume next year after Britain collapses. Some in the Johnson administration believe a deal could be struck next year without offering state aid commitments, but the reckoning in European capitals is that a few months of tariffs and border delays could make Britain an easier partner. to negotiate with next year.
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