Golfgate was a useless distraction from economic conflicts

Over the past week, the country has been largely consumed by the fallout from the Oireachtas Golf Society dinner in Clifden on August 19.

The controversy, which has so far claimed multiple high-profile scalps, sparked great public outrage and shed light on the government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic underway here.

But while a cacophony of voices voiced discontent over the issue in homes and workplaces, on the streets, online, in print and on the airwaves, deep down the economy continued its stuttering recovery, already unconvincing. often hesitant.

For example, on the same day that the now infamous dinner took place in Clifden, 50 miles east of Galway City, another small local business closed its doors for good.

Posting on their Facebook page, the owners of the Le Petit Pois restaurant in the city told their followers that they were very sad to announce that after “five years of fabulous sleep, love, food and wine sharing” they were closing their beloved and popular French local. restaurant.

“The reasons are as expected, a very difficult year 2020, particularly with our very small and narrow space and without clear signs of international improvement in the coming months,” wrote Michèle and Philippe Renaut.

“There are no really good words to describe these five years, it was more than running a restaurant, it has been our life project, our water and air for five years, we have put our soul into it and the only thing we can”. Let’s just say we’ve been more than rewarded for it – you’ve been amazing. “

It was a sad and peaceful ending for another company that employed people and provided valuable service to a local community, and an advertisement that probably went unnoticed by many who knew the restaurant, drowned out by the din of fury and rage that surrounded the useless. Distraction that was “golfgate”.

It was also further proof, as if we needed it, that while parts of the economy appear to have recovered strongly from the months of the Covid-19 shutdown, others (particularly smaller companies) continue to struggle and many more continue. in a desperate situation.

Typically September heralds the resumption of normal trading for many after a period of inactivity during the summer holidays.

But just as back to school this year will be very different, so will fall and winter for businesses large and small.

Many business owners had no rest and worked during the summer months simply to try to keep their businesses afloat.

Others couldn’t afford to take a vacation at home, because their income had plummeted a lot in the past months or had disappeared entirely.

In fact, many have yet to reopen since the spring close.

The Labor Force Survey for the second quarter of the year, released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Tuesday, uncovered the gigantic task facing the government to get people back to work and restore income.

The adjusted unemployment rate stood at 23.1% at the end of June, with the total hours worked decreasing by 22% in the period compared to the same three months last year.

“There is no way of knowing at this time how large and lasting the impact of the pandemic may be on the Irish job market,” said Austin Hughes, chief economist at KBC Bank Ireland.

“However, the scale of impacts revealed in today’s figures urges the importance of substantial and sustained political support to minimize permanent scars on the Irish job market.”

The data on welfare applicants also paints a worrying picture, with the numbers claiming Pandemic Unemployment Pay in the past week just 2,000 during the seven days prior to 234,400, implying an unemployment rate of 14.8%.

“This suggests that labor earnings have slowed to a minimum and Ireland will continue to have a double-digit unemployment rate by the end of 2020,” wrote Davy chief economist Conall MacCoille.

Still lingering concerns among the spending public were also captured by KBC and ESRI in their consumer confidence index, which fell slightly in August after three consecutive months of improvements from the April low.

“This suggests that fears of a new Covid-19 outbreak and stricter restrictions damaged confidence as strong labor market gains in July faded,” MacCoille said.

At the international level, recovery is also tentative in many places.

On Wednesday, the OECD released its measure of the economic outlook among its members for the second quarter of the year, with an unprecedented 9.8% contraction recorded.

At the end of this week we should take a first look at what the most local impact was, with the CSO releasing the Quarterly National Accounts for the second quarter.

They may not show the Irish economy to decline to the same extent as the OECD average between April and June, but the numbers are still expected to be bleak and unprecedented in this country.

All of this inevitably fuels the state of national finances, and by the end of this week, we should get an update on where treasury returns were at the end of August.

With a deficit of € 30 billion forecast for this year due to the dizzying cost of Covid-19, the Government faces very complicated and unpleasant decisions as it advances in the preparation of the October budget and the National Economic Plan in the long term. in the next years. weeks.

So back in the real economy, in the malls and main streets of cities and towns across the country, it is clear that the outlook is not rosy at all.

Pubs that don’t serve food remain closed and restaurant capacity is still shrinking due to social distancing.

The return to school means that the upturn in the “stay at home” business experienced by some hotels and other tourist attractions and activity providers in July and August is wearing off.

The international travel industry remains largely entrenched due to the maintenance of foreign travel restrictions.

Most non-essential workers continue to work from home, keeping the footprint in city centers and towns at depressed levels that are so low that they will make many businesses unsustainable.

Businesses also continue to grapple with the added costs and complexity of operating in the Covid era.

And some companies in areas where the number of Covid-19 cases is on the rise again are looking for recent local closures in Kildare, Laois and Offaly and wondering, will their area be next?

Thus, politics and politicians may have attracted much of the attention this past week, amid the fallout from the golf gate scandal.

But for companies struggling to make ends meet, simply buoyed by state assistance that will eventually have to end, the focus must quickly return to what’s to come, as they face a fall and inexpensive winter like no other.