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Robin Swann’s career travels in a different direction than Phil Hogan, Dara Calleary, and Barry Cowen. In November 2019, after two uneventful years in which he failed to pull the unionist Ulster party out of its supporting role in Northern Ireland politics, Robin threw in the towel as leader.
He was 48 years old at the time. Steve Aiken replaced him: in fact, Mr. Aiken was the only candidate for the position of “pushing the bus up the mountain.” Robin returned to the back benches.
But in January of this year, Robin received the first of two calls she didn’t expect. Thanks to a combination of public pressure and the formula worked out by then Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith and Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, a power-sharing administration was established to end a three-year vacuum.
The Ulster unionists were entitled to a ministerial post: after all the plums had been picked, they were offered the short straw / poisoned goblet – the Health Department.
Would party leader Steve Aiken or the UUP’s other most prolific press release broadcaster, Doug Beattie, take the job? No. In a surprising development, Robin Swann emerged from his self-imposed exile on the back benches.
The second defiant call you didn’t expect was provided by the coronavirus pandemic. As well as dealing with the longest waiting lists and other examples of the worst health indicators of any region in the UK, Swann found himself at the forefront of the fight against a virus that was spreading like wildfire around the world. .
He is an unlikely champion. Of agricultural origin and living in Kells, Co Antrim, he prefers to pursue his interest in racing pigeons over media outings. Before their fight, when Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill appeared at press conferences alongside their health minister, they were tall figures on the podium.
But Robin Swann is the Northern Irish politician who has best connected with the public during the saga of the pandemic. He has not dropped any balls or laid land mines. However, on Thursday, the Health Minister could not hide his frustration at the impact of those licensed establishments that “did not comply with the guidelines.”
His exasperation came as Phil Hogan was packing his bags in Brussels, convinced that he had not broken any laws while acknowledging that he had shown an unhealthy disrespect for the “guidelines”.
No vote of confidence came
The resignation of the Irishman who held the portfolio of Commerce in the European Commission changes the chemistry in the Brexit maneuvers. Until the day of his departure, Phil Hogan awaited the necessary vote of confidence from his superior. When he marked that he was not going to arrive, he interpreted the absence of support and resigned. Disorderly haggling is avoided.
He was one of the few players and probably the only Irishman with the ideas and the ability to make a good fist to achieve a Brexit landing zone, acceptable to the EU, the UK and Ireland, in the south and north.
Very important figures of the British government sensed it. So did authorized figures in Brussels and in the capitals of continental Europe.
Diane Dodds was a member of the DUP in the European Parliament before becoming Northern Ireland’s finance minister in January. She had many disagreements with Phil Hogan during her years in Brussels, but she never questioned the extent of her weight.
All three parties in the coalition government lost confidence in Hogan. They are aware of the possible consequences of Brexit and how the scope of charges could change, depending on the results of No Deal vs Agreement.
They are also charged with leading the country through the endless pandemic nightmare. They know the importance of public support. They weighed all the factors and came to their conclusion.
The way the Irish firestorm migrated to Brussels and the way it was interpreted by Ursula von der Leyen was decisive. John Downing, who worked for the Irish Independent in Brussels for ten years, was surprised by their findings. Me too.
Erroneously, I expected the President of the Commission to publicly scold her Commissioner, but to take into account his political usefulness, his track record and the way he was viewed by the EU capitals and colleagues in the Commission. He expected her to give him penalty points or put him on the Brussels Pulse List instead of taking his license away. As did the gardaí.
Death on television
Tuesday was, essentially, television death. In today’s climate, in today’s Ireland, where so many are stretched out, any shadow of arrogance on the part of a public figure is a potentially fatal flaw. Humility, as well as the unconditional acceptance of guilt, are prerequisites for there to be any hope of avoiding execution.
Phil Hogan didn’t show enough appreciation for those ground rules in his Six One News interview with Tony Connelly.
Somehow it was Saipan again. On the night of the interview with Roy Keane in 2001, a statement from the FAI concluded that Roy Keane had not shown enough regret. That rejection effectively closed the file.
On Tuesday night, literally minutes after Phil Hogan’s interview in Brussels, Mary Regan was reporting live how a senior government source concluded that “you have to go. If you don’t, the credibility of the entire European Commission on Covid is undermined. ”
Returning to the Saipan rampage, while Roy Keane’s material was still being edited in Manchester, a prominent figure from the FAI gave his verdict on the record on an interview he had neither seen nor heard.
The circumstances regarding Phil Hogan were different.
Even before he belatedly stepped forward to give the interview in which he did not show the required contrition, there was almost political consensus on his need to resign. Labor leader Alan Kelly was one of the first to publicly state his position. Of the three major parties, the Greens were probably the most circumspect as the pressure gathered momentum.
Fianna Fáil TD Jim O ‘Callaghan offered an alternative view on Sunday. (Even though he exceeded cabinet requirements, he also made sure not to criticize his party leader, Taoiseach Micheal Martin.)
Verona Murphy, Wexford’s Independent TD, also argued that the embattled commissioner should be retained. A former Fine Gael by-election candidate, you could write your own manual on the lessons learned after the wrong steps taken in the political quagmire.
Phil Hogan’s behavior in a pandemic, a monster that has the world upset and scared, was a factor that influenced Ursula von der Leyen. Another was the quasi-political consensus signaled from left, right and center in Ireland that their Commissioner had to go.
The main opposition party said ‘let’s go’
The position of the main opposition party, Sinn Féin, was significant. On many issues he disagrees with the Government. It was the party that received the most support in the last general elections but is excluded from power. Sinn Féin’s resulting sense of injustice leads it to poke holes in a shaky and vulnerable administration.
But in the general policy of the government during the closing of the pandemic, he was on the same page as the administration (s). He took a similar stance on Phil Hogan.
If Mary Lou McDonald and her party had had a different point of view, it would have been an interesting policy. What if the Sinn Féin leader had decided, politically speaking, that the wandering commissioner deserved punishment but not execution?
What if Mary Lou McDonald had said ‘yes Phil Hogan has made a mistake, made stupid and offensive mistakes and made a mess of admitting it, but in general political terms, including Brexit, Ireland and Europe are interested in keeping him’ How could that have affected the debate?
Clearly, like all the other parties, Sinn Féin decided that Phil Hogan’s behavior, in the context of an ongoing pandemic, deserved a red card.
the worst is yet to come
A difficult autumn is coming and a winter of discontent. To the south and north the number of virus infections is increasing. Ireland is no longer a health success story. Even the neighboring island, at least for the moment, is improving. That is a big change.
In response to its mistakes, the British government gets rid of civil servants, not politicians. Among the significant victims, someone with expert knowledge of British-Irish relations, Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwell, who had a close working relationship with the Secretary General of the Government, Martin Fraser.
Economic indicators are scary. There is no master plan for Brexit. The European Commission will have a temporary Trade Commissioner to support its main negotiator, Michel Barnier. Boris Johnson rarely, if ever, takes “temporary” seriously. Germany, the current holder of the EU’s six-month rotating presidency, made it clear during the week that no meaningful discussions are taking place on Brexit.
In the ‘fourth green field’, the confrontation continues between the two leaders of the shared power administration. Following Sinn Féin’s behavior at Bobby Storey’s funeral on June 30, DUP leader Arlene Foster discontinued her practice of holding daily press conferences with her Sinn Féin partner, Michelle O’Neill.
He parked his disagreement, just for one day, when the Northern Ireland executive traveled to Dublin on July 31 for his first such meeting in more than three years. Arlene and Michelle appeared together with Micheál Martin. But the confrontation resumed when the couple met Boris Johnson during her visit to Hillsborough on Aug. 13.
An investigation is ongoing into the events surrounding Bobby Storey’s funeral, including the arrangements for the Requiem Mass in Belfast, the ceremonies on the Republican plot at Milltown Cemetery, and the events at the Roselawn Crematory. Always a good sign of trouble, PSNI Police Chief Simon Byrne chose to bring in a stranger to take over the investigation. A deputy chief of the Cumbria police, Mark Webster, received the job.
To date, only a small number of those involved have been interviewed. The pace of sensitive activity is slow. Unless ginger is applied, the research conclusions are months rather than weeks or days.
But when the work is finally finished and published, the “guidelines” are likely to appear.
Robin Swann angered the “non-compliance with guidelines” by licensed establishments. Lack of adherence to the guidelines made (‘I didn’t break any laws’) Phil Hogan on Wednesday.
Will the “guidelines” be a defining issue when Mark Webster’s report on the events surrounding Bobby Storey’s funeral comes out? Or will the balance between the big picture and the small picture be different then? Could Sinn Féin remind the DUP how it behaved when the Renewable Heat Incentives Research report was released and did it deliver a few hits, but no knockout?
To keep the bus on the road, will there again be a reluctance to throw any of its occupants under it?
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