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One of the big questions that the Irish ask Google every day is whether the coronavirus will soon go extinct.
The Republic of Ireland’s opening plan won’t see a resumption of normalcy until August at the earliest, but some believe it could be sooner.
Experts, including a Nobel Prize-winning scientist, believe that the virus could become extinct and that the world could resume sooner than we think.
However, authorities have warned that this thought could be “dangerous” and cause a worse pandemic if people begin to relax.
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Here are the thoughts of experts and officials about whether the Covid-19 pandemic could burn out here in Ireland.
Professor Michael Levitt
Nobel Prize-winning scientist Michael Levitt believes the virus was never growing exponentially and that the blockades were an exaggerated measure.
The Stanford University professor predicted that cases in China would drop to around 80,000, with 3,250 deaths.
Here in May, China currently has a total of 82,885 cases and 4,633 deaths.
Speaking to Unherd.com, Professor Levitt said: “I think herd immunity policy is the right policy. I think Britain was exactly on the right track before they were fed the wrong numbers. And they made a big mistake. I see prominent winners like Germany and Sweden.
“They didn’t practice too much confinement and they made enough people sick to get herd immunity. I see outstanding losers like countries like Austria, Australia and Israel that had very strict confinement but didn’t have many cases.”
“They damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged their children’s educational year, but did not obtain any collective immunity.
“I have no doubt in my mind that when we look back on this, the damage caused by the blockade will outweigh any life saving by a huge factor.”
Speaking to Independent.ie, the scientist said that Ireland’s cases will start to decline around the 30,000 mark.
World Health Organization
Michael Ryan, executive director of health emergencies at the World Health Organization, was asked Monday about the concept of collective immunity.
Mr. Ryan said: “This idea that ‘well, maybe the countries that took lax action and have done nothing will suddenly magically achieve some collective immunity, and so what if we lose some older people along the way?’ This is a really dangerous calculation, dangerous.
“Humans are not herds. As such, the concept of collective immunity is generally reserved for the calculation that would need to be vaccinated to obtain the same effect. I think we have to be very careful when we use terms around natural human infections because it can lead to brutal arithmetic, which doesn’t put people, life and suffering at the center of that equation. “
Prof Isaac Ben-Israel
Professor Isaac Ben-Israel, an Israeli academic, head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University, said the coronavirus peaks after 40 days and disappears in 70.
In a self-published article, the scientist said: “Our analysis shows that this is a constant pattern in all countries.
“Surprisingly, this pattern is common to countries that have suffered a severe blockade, including economic paralysis, as well as countries that implemented a much more lenient policy and continued in daily life.”
Irish experts
The Irish emergency team is not going through mass immunity and warns people that the worst may not have happened if people do not follow the guidelines.
(Image: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin)
Dr. Holohan said: “As we get closer to May 18, the next highlighted date on the Government’s roadmap, we continue to monitor the key parameters associated with Covid-19. These include the number of new cases, numbers entered In hospitals and currently in ICU and the number of deaths.
“Although 43% of the population believes that the worst of the pandemic is behind us, the virus continues to circulate, the risk still exists in our communities. The health service will continue to prepare for and respond to the virus, the public is asked to stay the course and keep the progress we’ve made.
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