Ireland can withstand repeated waves of Covid-19 epidemics



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Ireland may have to cope with repeated waves of Covid-19 epidemics until a large enough proportion of the population is infected to provide possible herd immunity, new research warns.

At best, there may be three more cycles of infection before 60 percent of the population has the virus, which is considered enough to provide potential immunity to the herd, according to modeling analysis led by an Irish scientist at King’s College London.

However, it could take up to nine more waves of infection, and subsequent blockages, before the herd’s possible immunity is reached, under a second model developed by Dr. Rosalyn Moran and her fellow researchers.

The issue of collective immunity has been the subject of intense debate, however, during the Covid-19 pandemic and WHO epidemiologists in recent days warned that there was still no evidence that having a coronavirus infection confers immunity. over a significant period of time.

The current outbreak in Ireland is peaking now, according to analysis by King’s College, which estimates the eventual number of cumulative deaths between 1,008 and 1,250.

Dr. Moran stresses that there is “nothing set in stone” about modeling predictions made in research that she says shows the need for Ireland to replicate South Korea’s test levels for the virus and contact tracing for known cases.

The number of deaths and confirmed cases reported in the Republic on Sunday showed a slight decrease in recent days. Another 39 people died from Covid-19, while there were 493 other confirmed cases of the virus, the Center for Health Protection Surveillance said.

There have now been 610 Covid-19 related deaths in the state, while the number of confirmed cases is 15,251.

Air of complacency

Health Minister Simon Harris said Sunday night that he feared an air of complacency was “infiltrating” in relation to Ireland’s battle with Covid-19, which should be rejected. “We are making really good progress … but progress is fragile. We are in a very delicate moment and it would not take much to reverse it, “he said.

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