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It is a great decision for a small party. This weekend, the Green Party, Social Democrats and Labor are deciding whether to jump into detailed government talks or remain in opposition by rejecting the proposals by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
They have to weigh the opportunity for policy making, against the risk of being blamed and cheated by the bigger partner.
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have repeatedly emphasized the need for a third party to ensure that a stable majority government is formed and to give it legitimacy.
Some of the independents have indicated their willingness to start negotiations. However, the coordinator of the Regional Technical Group, Denis Naughten, has also insisted that a third party must agree before taking another step.
The starting point for the coalition talks is the joint framework document of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. This has been well received by its target audience, dismissed as aspirational, free and lazy. But Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael insist that it is just an opening gambit.
So how does a small party weigh such a decision? At the top is compatibility in politics. But the key to delivering on promises is timing and funding commitments.
A senior minister told me that they were reviewing the manifestos of the smaller parties, extracting elements for the joint document. On the one hand, this is cynical, but it could equally well be seen as pragmatic and as the essence of politics. Perhaps now is the time for the smaller parties to negotiate the best possible version of their key policies.
Both Social Democrats co-leader Róisín Shortall and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan have spoken about the ambition requirement for their key policies. Labor leader Alan Kelly has also stressed the need for deadlines for delivery.
The framework document may aim to accelerate the implementation of universal health care, a central objective of the Social Democrats, but a timetable is left blank. Sources from both sides have suggested that this is to entice them to negotiate the schedule.
For the Green Party, ambition in climate action is key. Leader Eamon Ryan appears to have established a red line before the talks can be considered. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael must commit to a 7% annual reduction in greenhouse gases. More information is sought.
New Labor Party leader Alan Kelly (below) said he is delighted that parties have reached out to Labor with a living wage in mind, but he also called the policy platform “purely aspirational.” Labor discussed the document yesterday and said his position has not changed. However, the party will speak again next week.
But along with achieving the policy goals, what about the long-term strategy? Recent history suggests that smaller parties pay a high price for joining the coalition.
Progressive Democrats had a massive influence on the government for some time, but they died out. The Greens made the ‘deal with the devil’ in 2007 and paid the final price, losing all of their TDs.
And Labor politicians feel they bore most of the blame during their coalition with Fine Gael, taking the blame for the unpopular policies and ceding the center-left terrain they have yet to claim.
But the message from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is that this time it will be different. No austerity has been the reiterated mantra with the commitment that cheap loans will allow the next government to avoid income tax and USC increases, while maintaining central rates of social welfare.
Several commentators have wept badly over this with the dissent also coming from the parliamentary parties Fianna Fáil and Fine.
Others have pointed out that dependence on debt and the execution of a large deficit seems to contradict the commitment to respect the rules of the EU Stability and Growth Pact.
Taking advantage of this, the Social Democrats have requested much more information on the economic forecasts and the cost of the proposed measures. The Green Party also wants more details on housing along with those firm commitments to tackle emissions.
These requests could be seen as a time play, but also, no party wants to be seen to automatically reject an invitation to the government.
So what party, if any, could really bite the hook? Within Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, there is a perception that the Green Party is more likely, although their support is far from guaranteed.
The argument says that the urgency of the climate emergency demands that they cannot pass up the opportunity to influence from within.
In addition, the Green Party has 12 TDs and two senators, so they should have more negotiating strength. But it is also clear that there is a spectrum of opinions within the party on whether to enter the government. Eamon Ryan acknowledged that this week when he said he agreed to a division between the ranks.
However, this obvious disagreement could work well in your efforts to secure ambitious climate commitments, as you clearly need strong promises to recommend entry into negotiations.
And where does all this leave Sinn Féin? His view is that any agreement in this way represents a seam by excluding them from the government. But the TDs also realize that with the other two medium-sized parties in government, Sinn Féin will lead the opposition. And that provides a solid platform on which to build.
But this is also a factor to consider in smaller parties, as they weigh the risks of giving ground from the opposition to Sinn Féin. This is a particular consideration for Labor, as it seeks to rebuild under a new leader.
Overall, this effort appears to be the final push to form a government. So if it fails, the prospect of a second choice certainly hangs.
But there is wide recognition that a vote would not be feasible until September. And that is a long time for a provisional government to address a pandemic and the economic consequences of that fight.
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