90% drop in deaths in the second wave of Covid

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Health Minister Stephen Donnelly told the Dáil that there has been a “more than 90% reduction in deaths” in the second wave of Covid-19 compared to the first wave.

He spoke tonight about the release of the Oireachtas Covid-19 committee report.

The minister added that the country now has “… the capacity to perform up to 140,000 tests per week. More than 1.8 million tests have been carried out since the pandemic began.”

Sinn Féin health spokesman David Cullinane said it was not yet the time to “look back” when it comes to Covid-19, because the virus is still spreading.

He said lessons needed to be learned, especially in relation to ICU bed capacity, nursing homes, testing and tracking, and GP care.

Previously, the Department of Health announced that it had been notified of four more deaths of people with Covid-19 and 429 new cases of the disease.

There have been a total of 2,010 coronavirus-related deaths in Ireland. The total number of cases is 69,473 and this includes the denotation of 14 previously confirmed cases.

The number of people in ICU is 33, unchanged from yesterday. There are 290 coronavirus patients in Irish hospitals with 15 admitted in the last 24 hours.

The number of hospital admissions is 20 per day on average, said Philip Nolan, chairman of the Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group of the National Public Health Emergency Team.

The positivity rate is no longer decreasing, he warned. It was above 7% at the end of October and dropped to 3.5% last week, but is now closer to 4%.

Professor Nolan added: “For three weeks we saw the number of cases decrease at a rate of 5% to 7% per day and a reproduction number as low as 0.6. We are aware that the number of cases has stopped decreasing and as a consequence the number of reproduction has increased to an estimated 0.7 to 0.9.

“The data strongly suggests that a recent small increase in the level of social contacts has led to the increase in the number of reproduction that we see now.

“A little extra effort to reduce our contacts will make a big difference in reducing the incidence of disease before December 1.”

Professor Nolan added that the incidence rate of the virus in those 65 and older is not declining, although it is declining among younger age groups.

He said this was a “major cause for concern.”

There is a “disappointment” because the transmission of the virus is not decreasing as rapidly as before. “People have done an extraordinary job of reducing their social contacts, but we have let it go for the last week.”

Professor Nolan said that we have gone from an average of 2.6 contacts per positive case to 3.2 contacts. This means that people have increased their social contacts.

“The marginal decisions you make about whether to meet people or not make a difference.”

He said at an NPHET press conference tonight that the recent rapid decline in the number of cases has stalled and social contacts could be the reason.

Professor Nolan said that it is still possible to reduce transmission over the next two weeks and reduce the numbers.

Medical Director Dr. Tony Holohan said that “progress has stalled” in the six-week period in reducing Covid-19 infection in the community.

Some people who could work from home did not, and people met unnecessarily.

He said the message about workplaces is not getting across. “People will tell you stories about canteens and workplaces that are full.”

Many people choose not to work from home when they can and are entering the workplace, he told reporters.

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He said that everyone has to redouble their efforts. “That means staying home and not working and avoiding all situations where you might have contact with other people.”

The CMO said that we have to think about our contacts and do everything we can to try to reduce them. “Now is not the time to socialize.”

Dr. Holohan said that NPHET wanted to get the virus level “as low as possible so that we can have as many options as we can as a country at the end of the month.”

He said “we lost a week in the six weeks [of Level 5] …. now we have to make up that time. “

We need a “collective final push” to get us where we want to go, he told reporters. “We are in a better place than most other countries, but 400 cases a day is still very high.”

Dr. Holohan said it was “too early” to say what will happen on December 1. He added that it only takes “a small change in behavior” to have a significant impact on transmission.

The vast majority of people hold a very high standard, he added.

“We should not take our foot off the gas in the hope of a vaccine,” said the CMO. “We have to get through this winter first.”

However, he said the data shared by drug companies gives us “reason to believe that 2021 and beyond will be different than what we have had in 2020.”

Taoiseach Micheál Martin will participate in a video conference tonight with other members of the European Council. The battle against Covid-19 is one of the topics of discussion.

He said on Twitter that he was “discussing vaccine launch and a coordinated approach to testing” at the meeting.

Of the cases reported today, 173 are Dublin, 44 in Cork, 26 in Donegal, 22 in Louth, 21 in Kildare and the remaining 143 cases are spread over the remaining 20 counties.

The cases included 194 men, 234 women, and 69% are under 45 years of age.

Deputy Medical Director Dr. Ronan Glynn said the positivity rate for close household contacts for Covid-19 cases was about one in four compared to about one in ten for other close contacts.

“This is not too surprising. We let our guard down in our own home.”

Dr. Glynn also revealed: “Deaths associated with Covid-19 have increased by 18% in the European region over the last fortnight. Just last week, Europe recorded more than 29,000 new deaths. That is, one person dies every 17 seconds.

“We have made significant progress in Ireland in recent weeks, but the disease and its risks have not changed. Please continue your efforts to follow public health advice, limit Covid-19 transmission in Ireland, and protect the most vulnerable. in our families and in our communities. “

The deputy CMO said that some people continue to report for work while showing symptoms of Covid-19.

Dr. Glynn said that some people were concerned about their jobs and their salary, but for many people it is just a habit to show up for work.

People are not doing this maliciously, but “we need a radical change in the way we approach symptoms like fever and cough this winter.”

Dr. Colm Henry, HSE Clinical Director, said: “This pandemic has placed enormous demands on our healthcare workers in addition to standard patient care.

“His work now includes additional infection prevention and control measures that require constant vigilance and awareness. The best way we can all show our appreciation for his work is by doing his part to reduce community transmission.”

NPHET’s update comes after it met again today amid growing concern that progress in the fight against Covid-19 at the national level appears to have slowed significantly over the past week.

The latest figures show that new confirmed cases of the virus are registering at just over 400 a week, virtually unchanged from a week ago.

In Northern Ireland, another 12 deaths from coronavirus were recorded, ten during the last 24 hours, bringing the official number from the Department of Health to 901.

There are 487 new test cases on 3,134 people, bringing the cumulative total to 48,716.

There are 456 confirmed Covid-19 patients in the hospital, with 41 in intensive care units, 32 of whom are on respirators.

Health officials in Northern Ireland have raised concerns about an increase in the R number, the reproductive value of the virus, from 0.7 to around 1.0 in recent weeks.

Most of the university activity will remain online

Higher Education Minister Simon Harris has said that as long as Covid-19 restrictions remain in the range of Level 3 to Level 5, a lot of university activity will be online.

He told RTÉ’s Six One News that he is “very concerned and concerned” about the effect the restrictions are having on students’ college experience.

Harris said he met with the presidents of Ireland’s universities today and discussed their shared ambition to do more to allow students some experience on campus.

He said he hopes a plan can be implemented to give students a semblance of normalcy, but this can vary from institution to institution.

Minister Harris said he believes more can be done and that the government will clarify the situation next week.

Additional information: Paul Cunningham



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