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The Brexit talks may still be ongoing, almost.
But so is the concern here in Ireland about the possible consequences of not reaching an agreement.
That’s for at least five very good reasons, as the consequences could be extremely dire for Irish businesses and the economy.
Exports
If there is no deal, one of the biggest impacts will be on the more than € 13 billion of Irish exports to the UK each year.
Up to € 1.7 billion in taxes or duties could be imposed on the importation of such goods upon arrival on British soil.
The agri-food sector would be particularly affected as 38% of that category of Ireland’s exports end up in the UK.
Half of the cheddar cheese produced in Ireland, for example, goes to the UK and would incur tariffs of up to 52%.
While Irish beef going to the UK market will be affected by tariffs of 74% on average.
That will mean that the total weekly bill for Irish beef entering the UK after a Brexit no-trade deal would be 8.5 million euros more than it is now, making it much more expensive for consumers. British consumers.
Imports
But not only will products leaving Ireland be affected, tariffs will also apply to many imports from the UK.
Breakfast cereals, chocolate, and processed foods are among a wide variety of items that could increase in price.
Ireland imports 4,000 tonnes of flour from the UK each week, and tariffs on that could increase the cost of a loaf of bread by 15 cents, for example.
Raw materials brought in from the UK for processing here before being shipped back as finished goods can also suffer.
That could lead to those who are ready for the market going up in price, making them less competitive in the countries where they end up.
The only way for manufacturers to get around this would be to source from elsewhere in the EU, but even this could come at a cost.
Direct purchases
For consumers buying direct from Britain there will also be consequences. Certain goods will be subject to VAT and customs duties.
A sports good or a team whose price is € 167, for example, will end up costing € 226 if everything is taken into account.
That, of course, can have a positive effect by inducing people to buy more local products.
Logistics and supply chain
Regardless of the agreement or not, new customs requirements will make it more difficult for goods to enter and exit Ireland.
Long delays are expected at UK, mainland and Irish ports as customs documentation and such is checked.
This will slow down the transit of products across the so-called UK land bridge, increasing costs and slowing down deliveries.
That could end up being a big problem for perishable goods, like certain high-value foods and pharmaceuticals.
General economy
Overall, the effect on the Irish economy of a no deal is likely to be significant.
The Irish Tax Advisory Council estimates that Irish GDP could be 6% lower in the long term, equivalent to € 21 billion.
Up to 55,000 jobs could be lost, according to the government’s contingency action plan.
Although the Central Bank said that 100,000 fewer jobs would be created in the economy in the medium term.
Don’t forget that all of this comes at a time when the economy is already under heavy pressure from Covid-19.
It is clear that the stakes are extremely high.
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