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The number of new Covid-19 cases is expected to increase dramatically in the coming days, as an accumulation of positive cases is officially confirmed to the National Public Health Emergency Team.
The chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group, Professor Philip Nolan, said he estimates that there are around 4,000 positive cases that have been reported by labs in recent days but have yet to be officially confirmed.
Professor Nolan also warned of difficult weeks ahead as the number of patients admitted to hospital suffering from the virus continues to rise.
The actual situation in Ireland is worse than the number of new cases announced since Christmas would suggest.
The computer system for reporting infectious diseases is old and was designed to report sporadic cases on a weekly basis and was not for the type of numbers that are being seen now.
Even if the R number were to drop below one, there could still be a peak of 700 to 1000 people in the hospital with Covid-19 in early to mid-January.
‘Tough weeks ahead’ Establishing recent trends in # COVID-19, Professor Philip Nolan (@President_MU) says the current situation is even worse than the latest figures show, and we should expect to see a very high number of cases in the coming days | https://t.co/pO7lVq2dTO pic.twitter.com/f6i9lAcHZ5
– RTÉ News (@rtenews) December 31, 2020
If Ireland fails to clamp down on increased transmission, the country would face what NPHET described as intolerable, unsustainable and unacceptable.
The HSE has said it will not call close contacts of confirmed cases for testing as the system reaches capacity.
Close contacts should restrict their movements for 14 days and call a doctor if they start to have symptoms.
Cases are increasing in all age groups, particularly between the ages of 19 and 24.
Until now, preschool and elementary school children have been somewhat protected from this third wave.
NPHET said that if current restrictions are not enough to curb transmission of the disease, additional measures may be required.
Although the HSE has not been able to provide figures on the number of vaccines administered so far, there are plans to vaccinate 20,000 people over the next week, starting tomorrow.
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