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Overall, it will take 28,000 new homes to be built each year for much of the next two decades for the country’s housing needs to keep pace with population growth, according to new research from the Institute for Economic and Social Research.
The ESRI also found that up to 33,000 new homes will be required each year if immigration is higher than expected.
The report, funded by the Department of Housing, Local Heritage and Government, analyzes probable population growth, based on assumptions about future trends in mortality, fertility and migration.
Over the period to 2040, life expectancy for men is expected to improve from 79.3 to 83.3 years, while for women it will increase from 84.3 to 87.1 years.
However, fertility rates are predicted to drop from 1.8 to 1.6 over the next decade and then remain stable thereafter.
A net inflow of 15,000 or more people is projected through migration if a “business as usual” scenario continues.
Under these circumstances, ESRI estimates that the population will increase by 926,000 from 2016 to 2040.
This will result in the total population reaching 5.665 million. But if net immigration hit 30,000 a year, then the population could exceed 6 million by 2040.
If they were 5,000 or more a year, albeit for a short period before increasing to more than 15,000, then the population could settle at 5.554 million.
When all factors are taken into account, the analysis finds that 28,000 new homes will be needed each year in the “business as usual” scenario.
That would rise to 33,000 if net immigration is higher, and drop to 26,000 if migration is less than expected.
Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, Meath, Kildare and Cork City are the local authority areas where demand for new homes is expected to be highest relative to their population percentages, while Mayo and Fingal will see lower levels of demand the report predicts.
The analysis finds that the eastern and central regions will see the fastest population growth, with Dublin having the highest proportion of population and the Middle East the fastest growing.
Previous estimates from both ESRI and the Central Bank of Ireland predicted that around 30,000 new homes would be needed each year to meet the requirements.
This year, the Government expects between 16,000 and 18,000 to be built, due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on construction.
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