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There have been no more deaths from Covid-19 in the state, but 274 more cases have been confirmed, according to the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET).
It brings the number of confirmed cases to 32,538 and leaves the death toll at 1,792.
Of the most recent cases, 166 are in Dublin, which entered Level 3 checks on Saturday under the Government’s five-stage scheme for Covid-19 regulations.
Professor Philip Nolan, chair of the NPHET Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group, said he did not like the term “second wave” being used to describe the recent surge in cases, as it made the disease seem “overwhelming” and the increase seems “inevitable”.
“It is not inevitable. We are in about 260 cases per day at the moment and the number of reproduction is between 1.3 and 1.7, “he said.
“If it’s 1.3 by October 14, we think there will be 400 cases a day. At 1.8 we are approaching 1,500 per day. If we get it below one, it will slowly decline, but we will still see about 150 cases by October 14. “
The reproduction number is the expected number of cases generated directly by one case in a population.
Of the last cases, it is known that 142 are men and 129 women and 65% are under 45 years of age.
52 percent have been confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are close contacts of a confirmed case.
A total of 52 cases have been identified as community transmission.
Outside of Dublin, the next highest number of cases was in Cork with 21. Elsewhere, there were 19 cases in Donegal, 7 in Kildare, 7 in Offaly, 6 in Waterford, 6 in Wicklow, 5 in Louth, 5 in Limerick and 5 in Meath and the remaining 27 cases were located in 12 counties.
Restaurant closings
Professor Nolan said the ban on eating indoors in Dublin restaurants and bars was justified as cases of the disease originated in these settings before spreading to people’s homes.
While the disease was “amplified” through community transmission in people’s homes, there was “more than enough evidence” that Covid-19 originated in congregated social settings such as bars and restaurants, he told RTÉ on Saturday with Katie Hannon.
Professor Nolan said it was a “misinterpretation of the numbers” to say that there were many cases in family homes, but very few cases in other congregated settings.
“If there is a case in a restaurant that will cause four or five infections. That could lead to three or four households and 15 to 20 cases, ”he said. There was “compelling international evidence” that indoor meals and the congregation were “the main drivers of community transmission,” he continued.
Professor Nolan said he was “with great sadness” that the committee had recommended the latest restrictions for Dublin, but that temporary closures were necessary.
While the incidence rate was three times higher in Dublin than in the rest of the country, “there is no room for complacency” outside the capital, he said. “We are facing a very worrying scenario … this virus, frankly, spreads rapidly. It kills people and we really have to take it seriously for the next three weeks so we can get back on track with the case numbers. “
When asked if some NPHET members had recommended that the restrictions for Dublin be raised to level 4, Professor Nolan said there was an absolute consensus that “the appropriate measure for Dublin was level 3”. He added that the “characterization” of a discussion within NPHET, mentioned in an Irish Times article, was not his experience of how decisions were made.
“NPHET gives its advice regardless of what it thinks the reaction will be,” he said.
The Irish Times understands that some NPHET members had privately expressed concern that recommending a higher level of restrictions could cause discord between NPHET and the government.
Professor Nolan urged Dubliners to adhere to restrictions so that restaurants can reopen in October. “We have shown before in March and April that we can do it.”
Mortgage distress
Speaking about the same program, Sinn Féin housing spokesperson Eoin Ó Broin called on the government to reestablish weekly meetings between the Taoiseach, the medical director, the health minister, party leaders and health spokespersons to maintain to all parties aware of the plans for Covid.
Ó Broin also called for an increase in testing and tracking capacity, noting that the government’s plan for the next six months had no targets for testing or response time. Urgent action is also needed to ensure that people with the six-month mortgage default don’t fall into a second month and suffer from mortgage problems, he said.
The government should “reconsider the issue of temporary bans on rent increases and evictions and the eviction notice, particularly when there are possibilities for more restrictions like we have now,” he said.
Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien said the Finance Minister and the Minister of Public Expenditure were in “regular contact” with banks over mortgage discussions as the Government increased housing capacity, including accommodation. emergency, as part of your winter plan.
In hospital beds during the winter months, O’Brien said the number of intensive care beds had doubled since the start of the pandemic and additional capacity was available.
The co-leader of the Social Democrats, Róisín Shortall, also warned of “problematic” testing and tracking programs, saying it was not sustainable to continue to block certain parts of the country whenever there was an increase in the virus.
More details are needed on where the virus is transmitted, he said, including data on its spread on public transportation, at sporting events, in workplaces, bars and restaurants, or on trips abroad.
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