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A prominent member of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has said there would have been more deaths if Ireland had remained at Level 3.
The country went from Level 3 restrictions to Level 5 on Wednesday, October 21.
Covid-19 cases had risen to around 1,000 a day before the move to Level 5.
Professor Philip Nolan, chairman of Nphet’s modeling advisory group, has said that if the country had remained at level 3, it would have resulted “in at least 1,200 hospitalizations and 150 deaths per month.”
Yesterday 482 cases of the virus were confirmed with seven more deaths.
Professor Nolan had previously said that Ireland could have fewer than 100 cases per day by December 1, when the Level 5 restrictions are due to end, “if we continue like this.”
He said that “we are now in a very different position” and added that “when we began this phase of our response to Covid-19 three weeks ago, we could not be sure that collectively we would get to where we are today.”
He said that prior to Level 5, Ireland was “probably 2-3 weeks away from our healthcare system being overwhelmed.”
It comes as the number of people receiving hospital treatment for Covid-19 has dropped by more than a quarter since the end of last month.
254 people are receiving treatment, up from 354 two and a half weeks ago, while 32 people are in ICU.
HSE chief Paul Reid described the news as “encouraging.”
He said: “Hopefully this is the start of a trend for these patients to be able to come home for Christmas with their families.
“We can all help stop more admissions.”
Meanwhile, Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said that gardaí will not knock on people’s doors during the Christmas period, raising hope that families can come together for a traditional holiday celebration.
“I understand that people will want to reunite with the family,” Martin said, but added that people “will not be in the whip for Christmas” and ruled out Christmas work parties.
It comes as the Department of Health confirmed seven more deaths related to Covid-19 and 482 new cases of the virus.
Dr. Tony Holohan, medical director, said the sudden increase in the number of Covid-19 cases reported last night was “an important reminder of the unpredictable nature of this highly infectious disease.”
With the focus now shifting to Christmas, Martin said that “a government-wide exit plan is in the works” and indicated that this could include an initial move to level 3 restrictions with further relaxation of measures before the holidays.
The government has already moved to downplay expectations that Irish living abroad will be able to return and suggested that pubs that don’t serve food should not reopen.
Under level 5 restrictions, gardaí was given the authority to call households to suppress house parties, which have been the source of various Covid groups.
Martin said these powers will not be enacted when people come together to celebrate Christmas.
Asked about the possibility of Gardaí knocking on the doors on Christmas Eve, Martin said: “That is not going to happen, that is not going to happen, we all trust here, both individually and collectively.”
A spokesperson for Martin later confirmed that the proxies were “never intended” to be used to prevent family members from visiting each other, but instead were introduced to cope with house parties and large gatherings.
Martin also said he expects churches to be open for religious services during Christmas week.
Welcoming those comments, Dublin Archbishop Diarmuid Martin suggested that additional Masses could be added during the busy Christmas week.
However, he said this would pose difficulties as churches would have to be disinfected between services.
“Our goal is to ensure that people can celebrate Christmas safely and we are putting great effort into preparing our churches in such a way that they can be places where people can come to worship safely,” said Dr. Martin.
Martin said the government will announce a clear plan before the end of the month, to give businesses and the public time to prepare.
“I think we’ve learned a little bit from Level 2 as it worked from the summer onwards. I think we’ve learned what worked and what didn’t,” he said.
“And I think that will inform people’s behavior before Christmas. I have a public feeling that they know what will be different.”
Meanwhile, University Hospital Limerick Group will implement mass tests of around 3,000 employees after a series of outbreaks in the hospital group.
Some 188 staff members are off work and self-isolating after testing positive for Covid-19 or being designated as close contacts, as of last night.
Professor Brian Lenehan, chief clinical director of UL Hospitals Group, confirmed the massive tests.
He said: “Currently, the tests are adequate and we have adequate contact tracing here in the Midwest and, in fact, starting today we will implement massive swabs for all healthcare workers within the hospital group as a precautionary measure, to a number of reasons.
“To identify potentially other healthcare workers who are asymptomatic and carry the virus, and indeed to assure staff that they do not have Covid-19 when they get ‘undetected’ results,” said Professor Lenehan.
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