With the coronavirus pandemic across the country, the numbers in some areas appear to be dire, if not worse, than at what appeared to be the height of the crisis. But even with COVID-19 cases skyrocketing across the United States, some states are being hit much more than others. Researchers at Covid Act Now, which has epidemiologists, health experts, and others who analyze the available data, have developed a color-coded system to determine each state’s ability to contain its coronavirus outbreak. As of June 29, these are the three states that they believe are in a “critical” situation with COVID-19. And for states where the numbers are going down, these are the only two states that see a further decline in COVID-19 cases.
According to the Covid Act Now, Alabama is at a critical COVID risk level. While an infection rate (the number of people the average ill person will infect) of 1.07 means the virus is spreading relatively slowly, the state’s positive test rate of 10 percent is high. In fact, travelers from any state with a positive test rate of 10 percent or more must now quarantine when visiting New York, New Jersey, or Connecticut. Although Covid Act Now believes the state has enough ICU beds, Alabama only has enough contact trackers to track 4 percent of new COVID-19 infections in 48 hours. And to learn more about the self-quarantine mandate, the CDC says this drastic measure may not help control COVID-19.
Arizona is one of the states that experts are most concerned about, so it’s no surprise that Covid Act Now puts it in the critical category. The state’s infection rate of 1.19 is considered high, while its positive test rate of 22.6 percent is critical – these numbers reflect that cases are increasing rapidly and not enough tests are being done. Furthermore, with an estimated 88 percent of ICU beds in use, hospitals are at risk of failing to handle new coronavirus cases. As for contact tracking, Covid Act Now believes that Arizona only has sufficient resources to track 3 percent of new infections. And for more areas in serious trouble, these states have “lost control of the epidemic,” experts say.
The numbers in Missouri are slightly less alarming than in the other two states, but Covid Act Now still considers them worrisome enough to identify that the state is at a critical level of COVID risk. This is mainly due to a lack of contact markers (only 4 percent of the number needed for the state), but also due to the average risk of their infection rate (1.05) and the positive test rate (5.5 percent) . On the positive side, the Covid Act Now believes that Missouri has enough ICU beds for future coronavirus patients. And for more updated information, subscribe to our daily newsletter.
