A wave of new national investigations shows that Joe Biden retains a significantly less-than-diminished lead over Donald J. Trump, leaving him in a stronger position to earn a local president than any challenger to the Convention. his party goes into modern questioning.
On average, Mr Biden leads with eight to nine percentage points among likely voters. His advantage is perhaps a little smaller than it was a month ago, when high-quality live telephone surveys showed him routinely using a bilingual lead. But it is still the largest and most ongoing national interview that any candidate has held in 24 years, since Bill Clinton retained a double-digit advantage in 1996.
The conventions often introduce a fleeting and uncertain period for public polling, as candidates usually win in the polls after several days in the spotlight on national television. While it is possible that the virtual nature of this year’s conventions will dampen that effect, this may be the last objective measurement of the state of the race until mid-September.
For now, the state of the race is clear, ending a nearly two-month period when live interviews and online interviews showed a modest other race. The new consensus can mainly be attributed to a shift among telephone surveys via live interview, which led to a two-point shift in the direction of Mr. Trump show. The online interviews have for the most part not changed.
The light restriction of the lead gates of Mr. Pray for a similarly modest improvement in the President’s rating rating. Overall, Mr. Trump’s approval rating among registered voters rose to 42.2 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight, from its low of 40.3 percent on July 28.
This uptick may reflect a modestly favorable national political environment. Protests and unrest have subsided. The growth of coronavirus cases is slower. The more established news environment seems to have allowed the president to snatch back some of his like-minded supporters. It may also reflect the continued efforts of his campaign to polarize the electorate and lure back some of his former supporters.
But the support of Mr. Biden is not rejected, even though his lead is somewhat shrinking. In fact, his share of the vote has increased. He now has 51 percent of the vote in the election, an unusual figure for a challenger who goes to the polls of his party (which begins Monday night) in the seven decades or so of modern polling . Mr. Trump has narrowed the gap with Mr. Biden by making even bigger gains, but he has advanced to only 42 or 43 percent of the vote.
The lower number of undecided voters generally reduces the uncertainty about the general state of the race.
Mr Trump’s gains have been the largest among white non-college voters, who are now 24 points behind, up from 18 points in live-interview interviews, weighted by education conducted in June or July. His power among this group represents his only realistic path to victory, as it did in 2016. Yet he remains underperforming among these voters compared to the by-elections four years ago.
One area of relative or uncertain strength for Mr. Trump is among non-white voters. On average, recent recent interviews show Mr Biden with a 41-point lead among this group, his lowest of the cycle. This may be statistically sound, given the small sample of non-white voters in most nationwide surveys.
Mar Mr. Biden underperformed Hillary Clinton’s leadership in 2016 among registered non-white voters this year, and it was noteworthy that Mr. Biden made no profit among non-white voters in June and July, when the national political conversation was focused on issues of seemingly disproportionate resonance in Black and Spanish communities, such as criminal justice and policing.
A longer-term average of polls suggests that Mr. Trump’s relative power is broad among non-white voters. He’s doing better than he did four years ago among both Black and Spanish voters.
Kamala Harris’ selection for vice-president could at least offer Mr. Biden some upside, though it’s too early to evaluate all the effects it could have on the race. So far, there are no early signs that she has revitalized her status among non-white voters. The only two telephone polls that were fully conducted after her selection, from CNN / SSRS and ABC News / Washington Post, show that Mr. Biden is slightly worse off among non-white voters than in her previous June or July polls.
We will probably have no other clear sense of the general state of the race until mid-September, after the two conventional bounces have disappeared and the race briefly settles into a new normal for the debates.
