Indians need to rethink Brad Hand as their closer

Brad Hand is a three-time All-Star. He has 44 saves in just 91 appearances with Cleveland. His FIP since coming from San Diego is 2.95. In any measure, it has been a fantastic addition to the Tribe. What happened Wednesday night against the White Sox is an aberration, the exception that confirms the rule.

At least until it isn’t.

At 30, Hand is far from washed out and ineffective as a pitcher. He shares bullpen space with Oliver Pérez, proof that relievers can maintain long runs. But the man she took on the closest role, Cody Allen, is only a year older and currently doesn’t have a team, proof that the arms of relief may be fickle. It’s not fair to compare Hand with Perez or Allen, because each has different strengths and weaknesses, but if we delve into Hand’s abilities, we see some troubling signs.

Of course, the 2020 sample is minuscule, but it continues a trend that was also evident last year. Hand’s speed is at his lowest point since the 2018 trade that brought him to Cleveland. His four-seam fastball, which he uses 36% of the time, is sitting at 90.8 mph this season, 1.9 mph since 2019 and 3 mph since 2018. Likewise, his seldom-used (13%) sinker is at 91 mph, which is a 2.3 mph decrease from 2018. Its most dangerous weapon, the slider it uses 50% of the time, is also lagging at speed, at 79.5 mph, a 2.5 mph drop from 2018. Similarly , Hand’s slider has lost more than 200 rpm in the past two seasons (2,357 vs. 2,584 for 2020 and 2018, respectively).

Those decreases in speed and swing speed have resulted in differences in efficiency as hitters have begun to find success against Hand. In 2017, with the Padres, hitters had a wOBA of just .177 against the slider; in 2018 it increased to .234 and in 2019 it rose to .243. In the short span of time Hand pitched this season, hitters have a .468 wOBA against their slider. As a playing field, the slider has also been dropped. In 2017 he produced a strikeout 32% of the time when he launched with two shots, in 2018 he produced a strikeout 30.1% of the time, and in 2019 he produced a strikeout 28.9% of the time; this year, however, he’s hitting hitters just 22.2% of the time. All of which has caused his ERA and FIP to rise precipitously.

Again, it’s important to emphasize that Hand’s 2020 is just a small sample of a sample, just 14 batters battling it out, so small it is foolish to draw radical conclusions. But the trends of previous seasons are not so optimistic. Also, the entirety of the 2020 season (however long it lasts, looking at you, Marlins) will be a small sample.

You’ve probably heard that the 2020 season was a sprint about a million times, but I think the most accurate comparison is a really long tiebreaker. Each team benefits from having an expanded playoff field, but consider that the season is already 10% gone and it really puts things in perspective. If the hand has an incorrect tendency, there is no reason no handling the bullpen like the playoffs are upon us, which is something Terry Francona certainly knows how to do.

Where Francona has demonstrated her ability to intelligently handle a bullpen during a playoff career, she has done even more to demonstrate that she loves expanded rosters. Right now, each team has 30 players, and Cleveland has eight men in the bullpen and five other potential relievers ready to enter the player pool at any time. The Tribe can run relievers and play matchups as long as the new minimum of three hitters allows.

So what’s the point of saving a potentially diminished Brad Hand for the moments of greatest leverage? Perez is still elite against lefties, Adam Cimber is a dirt ball machine, James Karinchak has things for days, Cam Hill looks like it could be the real deal, and so on. Facing a minimum of three hitters will make things a little more challenging in terms of bullpen management, but with each game that matters a little more, now is the time for Francona to prove just how good a manager he is. And that could mean handing over the ninth inning to the committee (pun intended, obviously).