If I buy a MacBook Pro 2020 or MacBook Air today, is it a waste of money?

Buy now or wait? If you’re looking for a Mac, that stubborn question won’t go away.

Apple will change Intel and exchange its own chip architecture in the next two years. At first it won’t happen to all Macs, but eventually the Intel-based Macs we use today will be history.

The problem is that Apple recently updated its MacBook Air and MacBook Pro with the newest silicon from Intel and added other updates like a new improved keyboard. That makes a new MacBook tempting, especially if it’s for sale.

Here are two scenarios:

Go ahead, buy today and damn it “Osborne effect“

If you need a MacBook right now and can’t wait, it should be fine for a couple of years, if not longer.

Apple will have trouble getting all of those third-party developers to write for their processors in the coming months and years. And if you expect one of Apple’s new silicon MacBooks, you’ll initially be stuck with emulation mode (think: slow) for some apps that used to run natively, and faster, on Intel.

Another plus: With Intel Macs, you can still use Boot Camp to run Windows games.

And something else to consider …

After Apple announced its transition to Intel in 2005, it took Apple about four years to release OS X 10.6 Snow Leopard, the first operating system that was no longer compatible with older PowerPC processors. What will the transition be like this time? I don’t know, but then again, your Intel-based MacBook will by no means be instantly out of date.

Expect the following:

Good things come to those who wait. That probably applies here. Apple is a smart company, and if any company can make a transition to a new architecture, Apple can do it.

Here’s what you’ll probably get with Apple’s new silicon-based MacBooks.

• Better battery life (maybe much better): You could see the battery life getting closer to what you get on iPad today.
• iPad inside: The new iPad Pro is comparing * on par with the new 2020 Core i5-based 13-inch MacBook Pros. Except the iPad Pro doesn’t have a fan and doesn’t get hot (at least my 2020 iPad Pro doesn’t).
• Better thermals – MacBooks today have terrible thermals. The palm rest of the MacBook Pro 16 I’m writing on now is warm and tends towards heat. And my late 2018 MacBook Air warmed up and / or slowed down at a slow pace. This happened so often that I finally sold it.
• Performance per watt: This will improve and is the sweet spot for Apple’s new architecture. This is generally the hallmark of better chip architecture. The goal is better performance than Intel and at the same time extend battery life.

Conclusion:

Thousands of consumers worldwide are buying new MacBooks right now. Apple will not leave them out in the cold. At least not for the foreseeable future. But the new MacBooks could be much better than anything (Intel-based) you buy today. And that could happen as soon as this year.

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* For example, iPad Pro 2020 is faster at exporting 4K video than a 13-inch (4-port) MacBook Pro 2020 with a Core i5 processor.