Drew Lock has deservedly captured the attention of Denver Broncos fans and NFL analysts. There is tremendous hope for the Broncos’ new starting quarterback because of his arrogance, strong arm, and the fact that he took over a brand-new 3-8 team and won four of the past five games.
Players, as well as experts, have expressed their opinion on Lock’s upward trajectory. It has the ‘it’ factor, which is, of course, a term attached to quarterbacks in an effort to explain that rare ability that is difficult to identify empirically.
However, there is some evidence that it should moderate the excitement and cause at least some level of concern about whether or not Lock is the savior of the franchise. That evidence is Lock’s negligible 4.7 average passing yards per completed passing metric.
He placed him in last place in the NFL of the 36 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes. Additionally, his deep ball accuracy (any pass that traveled at least 15 yards in the air beyond the line of scrimmage) was 33%.
That metric was bad enough to rank 40th out of 43 qualified quarterbacks who attempted at least 20 passes of 15 yards or more. Finally, when calculating the difference in passing passing yards versus catch yards (YAC), Lock was -0.86, ranking him 34th out of 36 qualifying QBs.
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Why is this worrying? Since 2009, only three rookie quarterbacks with at least 75 pass attempts have averaged passing yards per completion below 5.0 yards. Those quarterbacks were Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford, and Blake Bortles. Neither of those names should instill a sense of confidence for Broncos fans.
Those three also had a negative passing yard ratio to YAC as did other troubling names like Colt McCoy, Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weedon, and Brent Hundley. Does this mean that Lock is meant to be a mediocre QB at best? No, but it should cause some level of concern.
You could also look at the chart above and point out that Drew Brees, an elite-level QB, was only marginally better than Lock as an opposing perspective on this whole argument. Brees’ 5.3-yard average is not impressive, but his 55% completion rate on deep balls is.
Brees throws a ton of short, precise passes and that works for him and the offense style the New Orleans Saints employ. Most of the other ‘elite’ QBs are very close to or above 6.0 average aerial yards.
Reasons to rule out the metric of poor airfields
Let’s examine some potential arguments as to why your average aviation yard number should be discarded.
First, Lock played only five games, and one of them was during a snowstorm. That game against the Kansas City Chiefs on December 15, 2019 was their lowest ‘landing yard’ game, but just because the snow was flying doesn’t mean that game should necessarily be excluded.
Opposing quarterback Patrick Mahomes had the second best game of the season that year. He was more than three yards better than his average. On the one hand, it is difficult to compare the performance of a rookie to an elite caliber MVP quarterback, but on the other hand, if conditions were really an important factor, both quarterbacks should have suffered.
Second, Lock arrived at the end of the year and the coaches were holding him for his own protection. It makes sense when you think about it, but it probably wasn’t the right approach.
The same coaching staff allowed Lock to throw as many deep passes per game as he allowed Joe Flacco, the opening day opener. There have also been four other quarterbacks in the past two seasons who have taken over the starting incumbent throughout the season: Lamar Jackson, CJ Beathard, Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield. All had an average of passing yards per completion metric above 6.0.
Third, Lock’s preseason injury prevented him from playing a full roster of preseason and out-of-practice games until Week 11. This particular argument has some merit. Since Lock lost significant practice time, he had to climb an uphill hill to synchronize with his receivers.
That could only have led to missed opportunities on deeper thrown balls. If this were true, Lock should have shown significant improvement in all five games.
However, it only showed a slight improvement. In his first two games, his average passing yards per completion metric was 4.9, and in his last two games, he was 5.2. It is not a striking improvement, but an improvement nonetheless.
Meaning
There’s a lot to like about Lock’s potential, and these numbers don’t mean he’ll be a terrible quarterback. In fact, a recent proxy to use as a potential indicator of what Lock’s follow-up season might be is Jared Goff.
In 2016, Goff took charge of a lackluster LA Rams team in Week 11 and started the remaining seven games. His average passing yards per completion metric was 5.1 as a rookie.
That number increased nearly a full meter in Goff’s second season, and his deep-ball accuracy increased from 34.8% to 43.8%. He led that Rams team to an 11-4 record in his 15 games as a starter and a wildcard inning in the playoffs.
Also, a quarterback with a high average passing yards per rookie completion metric does not assure greatness. Some top QB examples that posted high metrics in this department only to get into the darkness of the NFL are Jake Locker, Geno Smith, and Jameis Winston. To say that this passing yard by completion statistic is the only harbinger of what a QB’s subsequent career will be like would be a silly statement.
However, this troubling metric should cause the anointing of a quarterback ‘elite’ to pause without at least seeing what a sophomore season brings. Lock will have to show significant improvement in Year 2 to secure a franchise QB tag.
The good news is that you are making all the right moves to make that improvement happen. He led impromptu practice with his receivers in the midst of the pandemic, chose the brain of one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, and devoted himself to the work necessary to be an elite QB. Lock’s future looks bright, but optimism should come with a fair amount of caution.
If Lock’s second season resembles his rookie campaign in these stat categories, it’s when fans should really be concerned. If it shows any noticeable improvement, fans can breathe a sigh of relief and really hope that the Broncos have found their QB franchise.
Follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasHallNFL and @MileHighHuddle.
