Florida. South Carolina. Arizona. Nevada.
In these and other states of America, the number of new cases COVID-19 It is growing at an alarming rate, and there is no indication that the coronavirus causing it is decreasing in the short term.
Arizona Governor Doug Ducey He warned this week that hospitals in his state could affect augmentation capacity in a very short time, and urged residents to stay home when possible, wear masks, and stop meeting in large groups.
However, he did not impose formal restrictions on the activities of Arizonans, appealing instead to his sense of altruism and community.
In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis continues to advance to the final level of his three-step plan to reopen the Sunshine State, even when faced with the higher increase in new cases anywhere in the country,
DeSantis said it was a blessing that in recent weeks most people who tested positive for the virus had gone from those over 50 to those 18 to 44, a group less likely to be hospitalized for COVID-19. or die of the disease. disease, the Tampa Bay Times reported.
But health officials warn that, unless there are interventions in place, such as the widespread use of masks, social distancing, and robust evidence followed by contact tracing, the virus will almost certainly also reach older populations.
“You won’t see the same peak of deaths at this time that you saw earlier in the pandemic, but it will eventually spread to the people who will die,” he said. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Center for Health Safety at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health.
Nuzzo and his colleagues have created a new Data visualization A tool that combines the number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths reported every day in each state with the dates when the reopening policies have been implemented there.
A timeline of recently confirmed coronavirus cases in California, juxtaposed against the reopening of landmarks in the state.
(Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center)
The goal is to help investigators, policy makers and the public understand the impact of reopening the measures on the number of new cases in each state.
His hope is that officials will be able to use the data to make decisions about lifting or reinstating infection control policies as the pandemic evolves.
Nuzzo spoke to the LA Times about what the new tool can tell us, why all reopens are not created equal, and why we should always remember that when it comes to this coronavirus, no result is inevitable.
What patterns arise when you look at the data this way?
Well, first of all, we can’t infer causality from these data, but we can make observations.
I have been mainly looking at Texas and Arizona. What we are seeing is a first opening, a pause, and then a bunch of openings one after another. It seems like after that is when we see an increase in cases.
But there are states that have followed a similar pattern of reopening and have not seen the same peak in the cases. What explains that?
My feeling is that it’s not just about reopening and allowing people to mix more what matters: it’s how you reopen. If you say, “We are open, but we really don’t want it to come out,” that is very different from “We are open. Go out there and support the economy.”
How those reopens were sent and whether people were told to wear masks and keep their physical distance make the difference.
Anything else?
Since the latches and latches didn’t make the virus go away, it was clear that if you reopened you would see an increase in cases.
If a state did not want those case numbers to accelerate, it needs to have other measures in place, such as gaps in evidence, the ability to make sure everyone who tests positive is isolated at home, and contact tracing.
It seems that the states of most concern to us have now been opened with nothing to replace the closure.
The tool you created allows you to toggle between cases and deaths. In critical states like Arizona and Florida, cases are increasing but deaths are not. Why is that?
It is too early for states to see their death toll rise. Deaths are three to four weeks behind growth in new cases.
Also, the new cases are in a younger population, so we won’t see the same peak in deaths yet. But younger people will eventually pass it on to older people.
It is important that people at higher risk, including people 65 and older, protect themselves.
Some people have expressed concern that we have opened too quickly. Do you think it’s true?
This is a long-term game, and I think we have to have a sustainable approach here. I am not sure to tell everyone never to leave their homes it is sustainable. We don’t have to strive for complete perfection, but if we all did a little more to reduce our ability to become infected and spread the disease, it would be helpful.
For example, parents can make sure they have outdoor play dates, instead of taking their children to Chuck E. Cheese, which is like a wet children’s market.
Is there anything else you would like people to know?
Nothing is inevitable. Many of my colleagues are deeply depressed by the numbers, but look at the New York data: They came back from the edge and are now well and continue to do well.
People have more power than they think. You may feel helpless, but you are not. You can make decisions, and you don’t have to be perfect to take effect.
This interview has been edited for its length and clarity.
