How does California compare to Arizona, Florida?

California is experiencing an increase in coronavirus cases unlike what it has seen during the pandemic. But is the Golden State in the same dire situation as Florida, Arizona, and other states where the virus is spreading rapidly?

Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Confirmed cases: The new cases declined slightly in California on Wednesday, as county health departments reported 6,874 positive tests, less than the daily records set on Monday and Tuesday, but higher than any previous day, in addition to 81 more deaths. The state’s total case count is now 237,661 and the number of deaths has reached 6,165.

Texas and Arizona have set new case records each of the past two days, while Florida’s surge last week remains unmatched across the country, though their numbers this week are slightly lower.

In the past seven days, California has an average of 6,033 new cases per day, its highest point of the pandemic. That’s about the same as Texas, which has reported an average of 6,020 new cases, but Florida reports the most new cases per day this week: 6,251. Arizona has seen a significant increase in cases, but its daily average is still well below that of the previous three states: it has added 3,445 new cases per day this week.

No other state comes close to these four in the number of cases in the past week, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Per capita: California is the most populous state in the country, home to some 40 million bathers, downhill skiers, and everything in between. So it makes sense that only New York, the first epicenter of the virus in the US, has reported more cases overall.

And yet Texas, a state with 25% fewer people, is matching California in new cases, and cases in Florida, with half the population, are increasing even more.

Only two states in the country obtained the “high risk” designation from the Harvard Institute of Global Health. They analyze the number of new cases in the last seven days per 100,000 residents. By that metric, Arizona and Florida are experiencing the worst outbreaks today, with 39.1 and 30.7 new cases daily per 100,000, respectively. California and Texas, with their higher populations, perform better with respective infection rates per capita of 13.6 and 18.8 per 100,000. Both are among the 14 states with the second highest risk designation.

It’s also worth noting that different parts of each state can experience more or less severe outbreaks. The Bay Area, for example, has avoided the worst of the virus. It is averaging about 7.25 new cases per capita, even as outbreaks begin to increase in the region, compared to Los Angeles County, where 22.9 out of 100,000 residents per day tested positive in the past week.

According to Harvard scientists, Imperial County is the only county in California that meets the high-risk designation of at least 25 cases per day for every 100,000 residents over the past week. In Texas, there are 30 counties considered “high risk.” In Florida, there are 29. And in Arizona, 10 counties meet that mark.

Several other mostly southern states have higher test positivity rates and infection rates per capita than California.

New daily cases per 1,000 residents (last 7 days)

1. Arizona – 39.1
2. Florida – 30.7
3. South Carolina – 24.7
4. Louisiana – 21.0
5. Mississippi – 20.5
6. Nevada – 20.0
7. Arkansas – 19.8
8. Alabama – 19.6
9. Texas – 18.8
10. Georgia – 18.7
11. Utah – 16.7
12. California – 13.6
13. Tennessee – 13.5
14. North Carolina – 13.5
15. Iowa – 12.2
16. Idaho – 12.0

Positive percentage (last 7 days)

1. Arizona – 24%
2. Florida – 16%
3. Nevada – 14.9%
4. Texas – 14.4%
5. South Carolina – 14%
6. Mississippi – 13.9%
7. Georgia – 13.3%
8. Idaho – 13%
9. Alabama – 12.5%
10. Utah – 10.2%
11. Kansas – 9.4%
12. Arkansas – 8.9%
13. Tennessee – 8.1%
14. Louisiana – 7.4%
15. South Dakota – 6.9%
16. Iowa – 6.9%
17. North Carolina – 6.8%
18. Wyoming – 6.6%
19. California – 6.4%

Hospitalizations: Just as cases are unevenly distributed, follow hospitalizations, meaning that some hospitals are at or near capacity, while others have many beds available. In the Bay Area, some hospitals have begun accepting patient transfers from counties like Imperial, which has inflated their overall numbers.

In California, COVID-19 patients occupy about 7% of the state’s total hospital beds, 5,047 on Wednesday, not counting the approximately 50,000 additional beds the state has prepared. It currently has more than double the number of ICU beds available (3,580) than those currently in use (1,613). But in Riverside and Los Angeles counties, their ICUs are almost full.

The same disparity can be found in Texas, where hospitals in the Houston area are approaching or already at capacity. In nine counties spanning the Houston metropolitan area, hospitals were 83% full on Wednesday with only 10 ICU beds available. In Northeast Texas, 43% of its hospital beds are in use with 92 beds available in the ICU. Statewide, there were 13,000 hospital beds and 1,322 ICU beds available Wednesday.

In Arizona on Wednesday, 89% of ICU beds and 86% of all hospital beds were full. There, the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 nearly doubled in the past two weeks, from 1,582 on June 16 to 2,876 on Tuesday, while its ICU patients increased 33% over the same period. In California, hospitalizations increased 64% in that time.

As of this week, Florida had not reported hospital data, even though health experts called it a key measure to track progress in containing the virus. As of Wednesday, there were 14,825 Floridians hospitalized with COVID-19, nearly three times as many as California. Texas also has more hospitalized patients than California, reporting 6,904 patients in hospital beds on Wednesday.

Tests: None of Arizona, Florida or Texas is evaluating more people or with a higher per capita rate than California. But the percentage of positive results in those states is considerably higher than in California, where 6% of their tests have been positive in the past week.