South Carolina has received a third term in a recent vote for U.S. Senate membership. Lindsay is effectively engaged in her contest against Graham de Long Mocart Jaime Harrison, a longtime South Carolina rapper. James Cliburn and one-time former supporter of the South Carolina Democratic Party. The chair is very surprising at first glance – in 2014 Graham turned to victory, winning by 15 percentage points. And Harrison has no political affiliation; In fact, he had never won an alternative office fee before.
So what’s going on here? Is Graham really in danger of losing? Let’s look at this from both sides: first, the reasons why Harrison had real reasons, and then the Democrats expelled Graham.
Not South Carolina That Republican-leaning
The poll suggests that at least 45 percent of voters in South Carolina return to Harrison, and that is not generally the case for Democrats in the state of Palmetto. Fifty-five percent of South Carolinans voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and 44 percent in 2012. In 2018, the Democratic Collective candidate in South Carolina received 46 percent of the vote, and the Democratic Attorney General candidate 45 percent. Biden is also expected to get at least 45 percent of the state’s vote.
Reason: The makeup of South Carolina voters is relatively good for Democrats (up to one point). About 28 percent of voters are black – a higher percentage than any state except Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland and Mississippi. (About 28 percent of Alabama voters are also black.) And the percentage of white voters with a college degree in South Carolina (27 percent) is not compared to all those states but Maryland (29 percent). Put those two groups together and you have the conditions for a big Democratic vote.
Also, President Trump is a little less popular in South Carolina than in 2016. His net job approval approval in South Carolina was +7 at the beginning of his term (50 percent approval, 43 rejection) now compared to +2 (50 percent approval, 48 percent rejection), according to Civics data. And that shift, and the Trump-led G.O.P., with college-led white-educated whites in and around cities. The dislike of, gives Democrats more opportunity. Democrat C Cunningham won the Congregational District in the Charleston area two years ago, becoming the first Democrat to do so since 1978.
Graham runs slightly behind Trump
Trump showed close to 50 percent or more in South Carolina in a recent poll, but the state’s senior senator is only in the mid-to-high 40s. So, almost certainly a small group of South Carolinians currently support Trump, but not Graham. According to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, the senator has a net negative approval rating of -8 in the state; Trump is at +0 in that poll. (So an equal number of voters had favorable and unfavorable opinions.) A recent Morning Consult survey found that 84 percent of Republican voters in South Carolina supported Graham compared to the percent who supported the president. Similarly, according to recent Progress Poll data, 95 percent of Republicans in South Carolina support Trump, compared to 89 percent who support Graham. A recent CBS News / Yugov poll found that 88 per cent of self-identified voters supported Trump, compared to 76 per cent for Graham.
We’re talking about fairly small differences here, so I don’t think Graham has a clear and unambiguous description of why he runs after Trump. But there’s some semi-informed speculation as to why some Republicans and Trump-leaning independents who like Trump may be wary of Graham. In the past, Graham has called on the GOP to adopt more noble policies toward non-certified immigrants, ranging from Graham’s close relationship with the late Sen. to John McCain, the former Trump. Having served in Congress since 1995, Graham is the current definition of Washington Washington. Moreover, Graham spent most of Trump’s 2016 campaign of blasting in very harsh terms, including calling him a “complete idiot.” (Remember, Graham fought for the presidency himself.) So Republican voters will probably remember these remarks and not believe in Graham’s transformation into a post-2011 Trump diehard..
Indeed, Jordan Ragusa, a professor of political science at Charles Charleston, said some of Graham’s skeptical voters, including Republicans, would see him as “opportunistic.”
“The joke in South Carolina is that Lindsay Graham’s count could be six… her voting behavior changes when it comes to re-election,” Ragusa said. (Senators prepare for re-election every six years.)
“There are some strong Rs servists who are not convinced that Graham is a strong Rs servist.”
Greatham, as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, will have a high-profile role in the process of replacing the late Supreme Court Judge Ruth Bader Ginsberg. But it is not clear if it will trigger a major election. On the one hand, Graham will probably defend Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Amy Connie Barrett, perhaps gaining the president’s admiration along the way. The Supreme Court process, on the other hand, may reinforce the idea that Graham is not particularly consistent in his political beliefs and position – perhaps the most obvious thing Republicans have said is, repeatedly, that his party will not try to fill a seat. The Supreme Court in the last year of the President’s tenure, the position he has left of course. In a recent discussion between the two, Harris attacked Graham for flip-flops over the issue, saying Graham should “just be his man and stand up and say, ‘You know what, I changed my mind.’
According to YouGov, the Supreme Court issue is unlikely to help any candidate much. In that poll, 28 percent of registered voters in South Carolina said they would be more likely to back Graham if he voted in favor of Trump’s nominee (voted before Barrett’s choice was announced), while 27 percent said they would be less. Probably but 45 percent said his vote would not be affected.
Harrison doesn’t give the Republicans much to attack
Ultimately, Harrison may have a better chance of winning simply because he doesn’t represent much of the goal for Republicans. He has never held office before and has no record of disputed votes. On policy, his positions are similar to Biden’s center-left approach. For example, Harrison is not pushing for a Green New Deal or Medicare for all.
All told, Graham is still a favorite to win. Five-thirty-eight Senate model Dale gives him a 3-in-4 chance to win. And Democrats have reasons to meet frequently Oh-so-off Palmetto to win the state but always fall short.
Most White Voters in South Carolina Don’t Vote for Democrats… Never
We talk and write a lot in the political media (including myself) about demographic groups, especially the division of education: white voters without a college degree are increasingly weak Republicans and white voters with a college degree are Democrats. But those two blocks vote very differently depending on the state and region. Both groups are more Republican In the south Than other regions. This stereotype may have something to do with religion (white voters in the southern states are likely to be evangelical Protestants) and race (white voters in the southern states tend to be more negative towards people of color).
There are also white voters in the South Continuous Republican. That is, they don’t really swing between the two parties as they do in a state like Iowa, where Biden could do 6 to 9 percentage points better than Hillary Clinton four years ago. In Thirty-Eight, we call this phenomenon “resilience” – basically, how many voters in the state are persuasive vs. Always vote for one party or the other. And South Carolina is one of the highest Not recommended States.
So, like previous Democrats running in South Carolina, Harrison had a fairly easy route to 45 percent (connecting the state’s black voters and his white Democrats), but the time to reach 50 percent is very difficult. In the Yugov poll, Graham leads with 26 percent of the overall white electorate, 31 points among white voters without a college degree, and 20 points among white voters with a degree. (All three groups are led by Trump Biden.)
And the problem isn’t just for a black candidate like a Democrat or Harrison in South Carolina. Similar to Harrison in South Carolina, the poll suggests Mississippi Democrat Mike Espy (facing Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith) and Georgia Democrat John Osoff (facing Sen. David Purdue) are in a competitive race. (Osof is white, Aspi is black.) But Mississippi and Georgia are also fairly fair states. Espy and Hyde-Smith also faced off in 2018, and won by a landslide over the Republican Mississippi Standards (-4 54–4 fair).
So the proximity of the vote could further the chances of Aspi, Harrison and Osof actually winning. They may all be fleeing to states where a virtual all-white bloc of more than 100 percent of voters will almost never vote for a Democratic candidate.
Maybe Harrison you can Negatively defined
The Quinnipiac poll suggests Harrison’s unfavorable rating is low in part because many South Carolina voters don’t know much about him. In that survey, probably. Forty-eight percent of South Carolina voters favored Harrison, 35 percent saw him as ineffective, and 1 percent said they hadn’t heard enough to form an opinion about him.
I expect next month Graham and the South Carolina Republican, Harrison to Clinton, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Sen. Bernie Sanders and other individuals will spend time with South Carolina Republicans and independents with the potential to be unpopular. Harrison doesn’t have many connections to this statistic, but probably won’t stop suggesting to Republicans that he’s a socialist and favors very liberal policies.
I don’t want Harrison to win. Maybe Biden wins by a really big margin, carrying states like Georgia and Texas and losing to South Carolina by just 3 points. In that scenario, perhaps Graham runs a little behind Trump and Harrison wins. But the more likely scenario is that Harrison gets about 45-47 percent of the vote – but that comes a little short. At the very least, it usually occurs in South Carolina.
