Intervening for Tom Brady was never going to be easy. On that most can agree. But does it get easier if the last offense Brady led wasn’t exactly a well-oiled machine?
If Cam Newton is Cam Newton this fall and takes over for Brady, if he’s The Next Guy, he will take charge of an offense that was found in the middle of the pack in various statistical categories in 2019.
The Patriots ranked seventh on the points scored (although they were assisted there by defense units and opportunistic special teams), and were 11th on the Outsiders’ DVOA offensive metric. Solid rock. But it was 22 in yards per pass attempt and 17 in quarterback qualification. His 3.8 yards per career attempt was 28th last season, and his third attempt success rate (38.3 percent) was 17th.
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His success rate per play, according to Sharp Football Stats, defined as picking up 40 percent of the yards needed for a first down (or touchdown) on the first down, 50 percent on the second down, and 100 percent on the third down and fourth down, he was 17th in the NFL (46 percent). In the red zone, their success rate (42 percent) was 22. In go-to-go situations, they ranked 25th with a 41 percent success rate.
A healthier offensive line in 2020 would go a long way towards improving all previous numbers. But if Newton is Newton, if he provides the Patriots with the rare set of physical abilities that he brings to the table when he’s in top form, he could help Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels’ offense improve on what it was in 2019 in some situations. critics. This is what we found after doing a little research on Warren Sharp’s Sharp football statistics site.
GOAL LINE
Let’s start right at the point gate and move back. The Patriots did not possess an elite goal line offensive in 2019.
Without fullback James Develin clearing the way for the Patriots running game, without David Andrews in the center, without Isaiah Wynn at left tackle for half the season, without an early-caliber tight end game, his tough approach. at the goal line he was missing something. From the one- and two-yard lines in 2019, the Patriots were 16th in the NFL in success rate (12-of-22). In situations of third and fourth drops on the one- or two-meter lines, a much smaller sample, the Patriots ranked 19th in the overall success rate (4-by-7).
Newton enters. His 58 touchdowns per career in the regular season are proof of his position as one of the best running backs in the red zone in modern NFL history. And one doesn’t have to go that far in the archives to find successful Newton-led offenses on the goal line. When he was healthy enough to play the majority of a season, he and the Panthers executed the most efficient goal-line offense in soccer. From the one or two yard line in 2018, Carolina was number 1 in the success rate (13 of 18). And in situations of need, it was 5 by 5.
Newton’s 6-foot-5-foot, 245-pound frame is obviously a problem for backed defenses against their own end zones. It is a six point drop. But the threat Newton poses as a runner provides enough for defenders to think they may doubt a blink in their tasks. And at that point on the field, that brief moment of indecision is long enough to gobble up a play. Newton going to jump on the line? Are you faking a handover and taking it to the edge? Will he keep it and hit his tight end by hiding behind a layer of overly aggressive linebackers?
It’s a problem. And Newton was so effective as a running back and passer in 2018 that even with a somewhat lackluster surrounding cast, the Panthers’ success extended well beyond the goal line.
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RED ZONE
We mentioned earlier that game by game the Patriots were 22 in terms of red zone success rate in 2019. But in terms of touchdown rate they ranked slightly lower, hitting 26th with touchdowns on 49.2 percent of their trips to the Red zone. (Interestingly, they were much better on the road than at home, 57 percent versus 43 percent, when crowd noise should have been a factor.)
The Patriots were 15th in the red zone passing success rate last season and 25th in the rushing success rate. Although they weren’t bad when it comes to their effectiveness in “four-point plays” (third in the red zone, where one play can be the difference between seven points and three). In those places, the Patriots were 10th in the NFL, converting 43 percent of their chances.
But with Newton behind the Panthers’ center in 2018, they were better than the 2019 Patriots in almost every category in the red zone. His touchdown percentage was 62.1 percent that year (12th) and his game-by-game success rate was higher in the NFL at 56 percent. They were the fourth best offense on the ground (61 percent) and the fourth best offense by pass (50 percent) in terms of success rate over the course of the season.
And before Newton suffered a severe shoulder bump in mid-2018, when it looked like his 2018 performance would rival his 2015 MVP season, the Panthers were even better close. They succeeded in a staggering 59 percent of their plays in the red zone, they were the first to pass the hit rate (61 percent) and the first to those “four-point plays,” picking up the necessary yardage at 71 percent. percent of his third opportunities inside the 20.
With Christian McCaffrey, Greg Olsen, Devin Funchess, and DJ Moore at his disposal, Newton had the best NFL quarterback qualification in the red zone for eight weeks in 2018 (130.6), completing the best 78 percent of his passes. in the red zone. , and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 11-0. Brady in 2019 scored 99.6 in the red zone (18) and completed 60 percent of his passes (15).
If Newton is healthy, the perpetual offseason “yes” surrounding this particular team, and if the Patriots can take advantage of what made him one of the league’s most efficient passers two years ago, they will have the final double threat as quarterback to help them get out of their red zone funk of the 2019 season.
SHORT YARDAGE
The Patriots were a better short-distance running team than you could remember, on average. In the third and fourth down attempts with a yard or two to go, they were successful in 23 of their 33 rush attempts. That 70 percent success rate was good enough for the twelfth best success rate in the NFL. Not bad.
It is the passing plays that you remember. The fall of Mohamad Sanu. The lost blocker on the fast hitter to N’Keal Harry. The Patriots were 6-of-14 on passes for the third and fourth downs with a couple of yards to go. That was a 43 percent success rate, ranking them 30th in the NFL. Not well.
Overall, the Patriots were 20th in the league (62 percent successful) in those third or fourth and shortstop situations.
For the same reasons that Newton should help the Patriots on the goal line, it should also help them improve their short yard numbers between the 1920s. In 2018, Newton and the mostly healthy Panthers had a 68% success in third or fourth and short situations. That was in large part thanks to Newton’s ability to run, as he had a 77 percent success rate leading football in those places, 14th in the NFL among runners (all positions) with at least nine of those attempts. In comparison, Sony Patriots running back Sony Michel has had a 64 percent success rate on the same stage in his two professional seasons. Between 2016 and 2018, Newton had an astonishing 82 percent of his carries in the third or fourth and shorts. If anyone needed a number beyond touchdowns to demonstrate Newton’s overall effectiveness as a short-yard running back, it could be that.
The Patriots work tirelessly in what they call “situational football.” His first replays of the goal line of the year usually come at the end of his first padded practice. Representatives of the third attempt. Representatives of the red zone. They repeat them. And reppeted. And reppeted. From summer to autumn and winter. Belichick demands a focus on those aspects of the game that generally produce results. Last season, however, those results weren’t always there.
For the first time in Belichick’s tenure with the Patriots, he will enter a season seeking situational accuracy with an unnamed quarterback Brady. But if Newton is healthy, there is that “yes” again, and if he can get back whatever he had in Carolina in 2018, there is a chance the Patriots will actually see an increase in situational success after possibly losing the best quarterback. of situational field in The history of the game.
