As the coronavirus epidemic began, there were high hopes that summer temperatures would reduce its spread. Although there is no widespread relief in the summer, the connection between the weather and COVID-19 Continues to be a hot topic.
The link between weather and COVID-19 is complex. The weather affects the environment in which the coronavirus must survive before infecting the new host. But it also influences human behavior, carrying the virus from one host to another.
Research led by Austin University of Texas at Austin is adding some clarity about the role of weather in COVID-19 infections, with a new study finding that temperature and humidity do not play a significant role in the spread of coronavirus.
This means that whether it is hot or cold, the transmission of COVID-19 from one person to another is almost entirely based on human behavior.
Dev Niyogi, a professor of engineering at the Jackson School of Geostation and Cockrell School of Engineering at UT Aust Stein, who led the research, said the impact of weather is less and other features such as mobility are more influential. “In terms of relative importance, weather is one of the last parameters.”
This research was published on October 26, 2020 International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.
Co-authors include Sajjad Jamshidi, a research assistant at Purdue University, and Maryam Banisad, a doctoral candidate from Ohio State University.
A study led by UT Austin Stein Professor Dev Niyogi found that temperature and humidity do not play a significant role in the spread of coronavirus. Credit: Ian Dolphin
This study defines weather as “uniform weather temperature”, which combines temperature and humidity at the same value. Scientists analyzed how this value with coronavirus spreads to different areas during March to July 2020, U.S. From states and counties to countries, territories and large-scale worldwide.
At the county and state levels, researchers also examined the relationship between coronavirus infection and human behavior, using cellphone data to study travel habits.
This study examined human behavior in a general sense and did not attempt to link it to how the weather might affect it. At each scale, the researchers adjusted their analysis so that no results were found in population differences.
Around the scales, scientists discovered that the weather had almost no effect. When compared with other factors using statistical metrics that break down the relative contribution of each factor to a particular outcome, the relative importance of weather on the county scale was less than 3%, with no indication that a particular type of weather prevailed. On top of the other.
In contrast, the data showed a clear influence of human behavior – and an outstanding influence of individual behaviors. Traveling out and spending time away from home were the top two contributing factors to COVID-19 growth, measuring approximately 34% and 26%, respectively. The next two important factors were population and urban density, which were about 23% and 13%, respectively.
“We should not think of the problem as something driven by weather and climate,” Jamshidi said. “We have to take personal precautions, pay attention to the factors of urban exposure.”
Banasad, a biochemist and pharmacist, said assumptions about how the coronavirus would react to the weather are largely informed by studies conducted in laboratory settings on the relevant virus. He said the study illustrates the importance of the study analyzing how coronavirus is spread in human communities.
“When you study something in the lab, it’s an observed environment. It is difficult to reach out to the society, ”he said. “This was our first motivation to do a more comprehensive study.”
Marshall Shepherd, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Georgia, who was not part of the study, said the research provides important insights into the weather and coronavirus throughout the scale.
“This important work highlights a number of clarifications about weather-COVID-19 connections and the need to address the challenges of science on the right scales,” Shepherd said.
One of the key lessons of the coronavirus epidemic is the importance of analyzing phenomena on a “human scale” – the scale on which humans live their daily lives, Niyogi said. He said the research is an example of this kind of perspective.
Niyogi said, “It is claimed that Kovid can change everything. “We see the appearance of weather and climate as a system that we see below, below, below and then how it affects humans. Right now, we’re flipping the case and upscaling, starting with the Human Exposure Scale and then moving out. This is a new paradigm for which we will need to come in contact with viruses and study the human environmental modeling systems associated with new sensing and technologies such as AI. “
Reference: “Global to USA County Scale Analysis of Weather, Urban Density, Mobility, Homestay and Mask Use on COVID-19 by Saj Sajjad Jamshidi, Maryam Banisad and Dev Niyogi, 26 October 2020, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.
DOI: 10.3390 / Ijerf 17217847
University of Texas at Stein, Texas NASA And the National Science Foundation provides funding for research.
