Hezbollah of Lebanon ‘gained power but lost the country’

BEIRUT (Reuters) – Fifteen years after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, Hezbollah has risen to power in a country that is now collapsing in the midst of a series of devastating crises.

A UN-backed tribunal on Tuesday convicted a member of the Iranian-backed group of allies for killing Hariri in a 2005 bombing and three others released.

The ruling came at a time when Lebanon’s economy was collapsing. Institutions from the security services to the presidency, occupied by an ally of Hezbollah, have been found, and people are struggling with the aftermath of the massive explosion that polluted central Beirut this month.

Added to this is there is no functioning government and there is a spike in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has denied that the group has ever controlled Lebanese governments or that it has a majority that would allow it to act on its own.

But Lebanon is slipping out of the hands of Hezbollah, said a political source familiar with the thinking among the group’s Christian allies.

“By gaining the majority (in parliamentary elections) and a president on their side, they thought they were controlling the country, but what happened now with Hezbollah and its allies is that they gained power, but they lost the country and the people. ”

Hezbollah has faced growing criticism for its perceived failure to deliver on promised reforms since winning a parliamentary majority with its allies in 2018.

The government – nominated by Hezbollah and its allies after the previous administration led by Saad al-Hariri, son of the assassinated prime minister, was overthrown by a civil uprising last October – resigned over the August 4 explosion.

It had tried to negotiate a rescue package with the International Monetary Fund, but was blocked by the many powerbrokers who appointed it.

“There are so many problems internally, apart from the port explosion,” said Magnus Ranstorp, a Hezbollah expert. “The land breaks under her feet.”

Fawaz Gerges, Middle East expert at the London School of Economics, adds: “This is one of the most fundamental challenges that Lebanon has faced since its independence from (France) in 1943, because you are now several crises affecting Lebanon and Hezbollah. ”

‘I am afraid that this (the decision of the tribunal) could provide a trigger. The country, which is already divided, will become politics on sectarian countries as opposed to political and ideological rules. ”

Western donors say they will not reimburse Lebanon for a corrupt system without fundamental reforms.

Mohanad Hage Ali, a colleague at the Carnegie Middle East Center, said Hezbollah had “failed miserably” to keep its election promise to fight corruption. ‘They have literally delivered nothing on this promise. In fact, her campaign against corruption is now a popular joke. ”

“As is the case with most of this political class, Hezbollah has not been in a weaker position than they are right now,” he said.

The Shiite movement, which has served as a spearhead for Tehran during the Syrian civil war and across the region, is also facing public outrage over the explosion in the port of Beirut that has traumatized the country.

The explosion of what authorities say was 2,700 tons of unsafe stored ammonium nitrate, caused disgrace over negligence, incompetence and inactivity of the government.

Hezbollah is not only the dominant power in Lebanon, but is seen as protecting a corrupt political class that has driven Lebanon to the ground.

“What Hezbollah does not understand about the port explosion, the terror, the protests, is that people see it as the latest manifestation of the corrupt elite and they hold Hezbollah responsible for protecting that elite,” Gerges said.

“Hezbollah is losing the story in Lebanon,” he said.

Many Lebanese, including some Christians who once supported Hezbollah, have turned against the group, although it is not responsible for an economic crisis that has raged for years under previous governments.

DIFFERENT PRIORITIES

The mood changed after Nasrallah gave a television address denying responsibility for the blast and warned protesters that more attacks on the system and its leaders would meet with a robust response.

“You’d expect him to have reached the audience by saying he would do anything to find out what happened, that ‘we are with the people,'” Gerges said.

But Hezbollah’s priorities are geo – strategic instead of central Lebanon.

It is feared that change in Lebanon could affect its ability to influence a political system that allows it to retain its weapons and fighters, analysts say.

As a result, Hezbollah has been banished to Lebanon.

“They want to maintain their powerful position in the country, they want to maintain their weapons, they want to maintain a veto in decision-making, while at the same time wanting to tell people that they are against corruption and that they are different from the corrupt ruling elite. “These contradictions have been addressed by Hezbollah,” Gerges said.

Khalil Gebara, senior policy fellow at Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, said: “After the explosion, it is clear that the political system has also collapsed nearby … Hezbollah’s goal today is to prolong the life of the Lebanese political system. ”

Although the court found no evidence of direct involvement by Hezbollah’s leadership, the judges said Hariri’s assassination was clearly a politically motivated act of terrorism.

The ruling, analysts say, is likely to exacerbate Hezbollah’s difficulties, already identified by the United States and several others as a terrorist group.

“More and more countries are likely to consider Hezbollah as a paramilitary terrorist organization,” Gerges said.

Ranstorp says even before the Hariri ruling, the vote in Europe and Washington had swung against a Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon, because of the ash of the Shiite power that Iran has built over Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

The challenge for Hezbollah comes because it and its forces in Syria are regularly attacked by Israeli war plans, and powerful allied militias in Iraq are under pressure.

Most analysts say Hezbollah will sit tight, hoping time will work in its favor, either by a new U.S. president or by a possible new understanding between Tehran and the Trump administration ahead of the November election.

“They want to keep the (Lebanese) state as it is today. They do not want a strong state. But they do not want to be fragmented, because this means more headaches, more challenges for them, “said Hage Ali.