The top Chicago official said Tuesday that the city will not release any of its coronavirus restrictions until one metric in particular drops.
That number is the daily average number of new cases, Chicago Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr Allison Arwady told a news conference, pointing to a metric she has referred to throughout the pandemic several times as the figure that health officials have largely led in their decision-making process.
As of Tuesday, the city saw a rolling average of 307 new cases per day, Arwady said. That number is lower than the nearly 1,000 new cases the city saw on average each day in the wake of the pandemic in early May, she said – but still not as low as officials want it to be.
“That’s really been the last week as two have been pretty consistent,” Arwady said. “We’ve seen that flat, but we have not yet seen the decay we would like to see.”
Arwady said last month that that number “is the best reflection of the burden of our illness” and that the current daily average puts Chicago in a “state of high incidence.”
Health officials want that number to drop below 200 to get out of the “high incidence status” and before they do consider removing all the restrictions that are in place to limit the spread of the virus, Arwady said.
The city fell below 200 in June, Arwady said, but overcame that figure again in July, asking Chicago officials to shut down indoor services at bars and other establishments that serve alcohol without a food license and reduce the size. of parties allowed at restaurants from 10 to six people, among other changes.
When asked about potential lifting of these restrictions, specifically the size of parties at restaurants, Arwady said health officials will not consider it until the city returns below 200 average new cases per day.
“When we think about the number of people who come together at an event, especially when they gather in a setting like a restaurant, where you can at least not wear a mask when you eat and drink, we really think about what the risk is. someone will have COVID in a group of a given size, “Arwady said.
“Even when we were on average 200 cases a day, there was still, seeing the number of active cases that means we have in Chicago, about a 15% chance that you, in a group of 50 people, for example, one would have with active COVID who might not know that, “she continued.
“We will not think about releasing these restrictions until we return under 200 cases,” Arwady said. “We get under 200 cases, we move out of a state with high incidents. We can then start thinking again, ‘Are there any safe ways to reopen?'”
Arwady added that as long as Chicago continues to see between 200 and 400 new cases a day on average, the city will remain in a “holding pattern.”
“I want to move forward as much as anyone else, but until we see some progress, we will not seek to expand further,” she added.
Arwady has previously said that if the city reaches an average of 400 new cases per day, which “really marks a line in the sand”, the city could impose more restrictions or even roll a phase in its reopening.
According to CDPH, 400 cases per day is the equivalent of the number the state uses to determine if states should be added to the city’s travel order, which requires a 14-day career.
“It’s the equivalent of going back to phase three, really pulling back on big activities,” Arwady said last month.
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