Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, says there is “a lot to like ”about where Massachusetts has come from the COVID-19 pandemic, especially compared to the state it was in several months ago.
Jha praised Governor Charlie Baker’s administration’s “data-driven” approach, which he credits for significantly reducing the number of coronavirus cases in what was initially one of the states most affected by the outbreak.
“Massachusetts is objectively in a much better shape,” he said during a conference call with reporters Monday.
But when Massachusetts enters Phase 3 of Baker’s reopening plan, Jha has some concerns.
“I am concerned not because there is a lot of evidence that things are going in the wrong direction, but basically because I desperately want schools to be open this fall,” he said.
Phase 3 allows the reopening of gyms, theaters, and museums, among other activities, in addition to indoor dining, which resumed during Phase 2, where people are likely to congregate indoors and therefore have more likely to spread COVID-19.
According to Jha, the “most important determinant” of whether schools will be able to resume classes in person this fall will be the prevalence of COVID-19. And last week, the number of daily confirmed coronavirus cases increased in 40 of 50 states, forcing many to implement facial coverage mandates for the first time and even reverse course in their reopening plans.
Even some places where COVID-19 cases have declined, such as New York City and New Jersey, have delayed plans to allow indoor meals to resume, amid concerns about outbreaks elsewhere. Connecticut indefinitely delayed its own Phase 3 on Monday.
“As we leave the weekend of July 4, we are seeing some very difficult days and weeks to come,” Jha said of the national situation.
Even though Massachusetts was one of the slowest states to lift its shutdown orders, Jha says he increasingly feels that leaders may be forced to do “A choice between opening bars and restaurants on the one hand versus opening schools on the other.”
“For me, it is obvious in terms of what is of best social value,” he said. “But I am a little worried about what will happen in Massachusetts.”
Jha said Massachusetts “improved in testing,” but it still lacks what it wants it to be.
According to an analysis published last week by the Harvard Global Health Institute, the state administered an average of nearly 9,000 tests per day from June 23 to 29. That’s more than 1,500 more tests than the “levels of mitigation experts estimate are necessary to keep the current outbreak from growing in Massachusetts. Yet just a third of the levels of” suppression “of tests that experts say they would be necessary to keep the new infections low enough to safely move forward with public life again.
According to the analysis, only a few small states with limited outbreaks (Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, and Vermont) have achieved suppression levels, while West Virginia and New Jersey are close to their targets.
Jha said his same concerns hold true for other New England states, such as Rhode Island and New Hampshire, which have cautiously pushed ahead with their reopening plans. Whether or not cases continue to decline, she said her decisions should continue to be driven by public health data.
“If we start to see things go in the wrong direction, I would like the governors and leaders of these states to stop and reverse course, because I really want schools to open this fall,” he said.
In Massachusetts, bars, defined as establishments that do not provide sit-down food, have been delayed to Phase 4 of the state’s reopening, amid evidence that they have been linked to outbreaks in other states. Jha suggested that more aggressive action may be necessary if the numbers rise again.
“If we start to see any increase, we should track what is driving it. Insofar as it involves any type of restaurants, bars, [or] any type of indoor meeting, we will have to make some tough decisions as a state. “
Nationwide, Jha suggested that President Donald Trump’s administration could do more to take that data-driven approach, particularly given the “confusion” caused by the president’s comments that downplay the recent record increase in new cases.
“If we could let science and evidence really drive our decision-making, it would help control the virus, it would save lives, it would help open up our economy,” he said.
Jha said the federal government has the tools and resources to tackle the current “dangerous moment”. But she said more urgency was needed.
“Nothing that happened in the last week makes me think we have made the kind of changes we need to double this curve,” said Jha.
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