California must more than double its current daily tests to monitor the worsening of the spread of the coronavirus, according to new estimates released this week by the Harvard Global Health Institute.
Adjusted targets occur as cases have increased across the country, and some states have seen positive cases that far exceed their ability to test.
California has been keeping up with the increase in new cases by performing an average of 215 tests per 100,000 people per day, or about 85,000 tests per day.
But the recent increase in cases means California will have to do many more tests to control and reduce the spread of the virus.
California now needs to do 564 tests per 100,000 people per day, or about 223,000 tests per day, to mitigate the spread of the virus in the state. To suppress the coronavirus, the state must do that multiple times: 2,088 tests per 100,000 people per day, or about 825,000 tests per day. The estimates were produced by the Harvard Global Health Institute, a research group focused on public policy and a collaboration of scientists and public health experts across the country.
“We still have more testing to do,” Governor Gavin Newsom said Wednesday, noting that the state is meeting its stated goal of conducting 60,000 to 80,000 tests per day.
A spokeswoman for the California Department of Public Health said the state’s testing capacity will continue to increase, but did not specifically address the Harvard figures.
Dr. Thomas Tsai, a surgeon and health policy expert at the TH Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, cautioned that the new goals are more like goal posts that can change as case rates change. If measures such as wearing masks and social distancing can reduce case rates, for example, less evidence will be needed.
But for now, he said, the state needs “to keep moving the test needle up” to understand the true spread of the coronavirus and reduce it.
“California is a good warning story,” said Tsai, noting that the state led the country in aggressive shelter orders at the site that stopped infections and only began reopening after case rates had dropped.
“It shows you that even in a state that has worked well, how important it is to stay alert, because the pot is always about to boil,” he said. “If you’re just up to date with the minimum of testing, all you’re doing is just keep the lid on the pot.”
Like other states in the country, coronavirus cases in California have accelerated in recent weeks as the economy reopened. Outbreaks in prisons and nursing homes have been behind some of the increases, but so have social gatherings. On Tuesday, the state registered 7,820 new cases, its second highest number in a 24-hour period. On Wednesday there were 5,898. Hospitalizations and admissions to intensive care units have also skyrocketed.
As of Sunday, California, along with 12 other states, was rated “orange” on the risk scale developed by Harvard and the collaboration of scientists. Orange indicates an increase in community spread. Orders to stay home may be necessary, unless increased testing and tracing is possible. Three states, Arizona, Florida and Mississippi, were classified as “red”, which means that the spread of the community is unchecked and that orders to stay home are necessary.
Cynthia Dizikes and Catherine Ho are staff writers for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected], [email protected], Twitter: @Cat_Ho, @CDizikes
