Climate models suggest that continued increases in methane levels could cause global temperatures to rise 3 to 4 degrees Celsius by 2100, researchers at the Global Carbon Project said in a statement released Wednesday.
The researchers analyzed methane emissions from 2000 to 2017, the latest year for which complete global data is available, and warn that the current path leads to a “dangerous temperature threshold,” according to the statement.
Both natural disasters, such as forest fires, floods and droughts, and social disruptions, including mass migration and famine, would become “almost commonplace,” he said.
Methane is 28 times more effective at trapping heat for 100 years than carbon dioxide, the team said, and human activity accounts for more than half of methane emissions.
Annual greenhouse gas emissions have increased 9% since 2000, which has the same effect on warming as adding 350 million cars to our roads.
The team, led by Rob Jackson, a professor of earth system science at Stanford University’s College of Earth Sciences, Energy and Environment, published two articles in Earth Data Science Data and Environmental Research Letters on Wednesday.
Research showed that livestock farming is the main reason for the increase in methane levels.
“Emissions from livestock and other ruminants are almost as great as those from the fossil fuel industry for methane,” said Jackson. “People joke about burping cows without realizing how big the fountain really is.”
Agriculture as a whole produces two-thirds of total emissions, and growing rice and burning biomass also contribute significantly, according to the researchers.
Fossil fuels account for most of the remaining third, and the two sources have contributed almost equally to recent increases.
While carbon emissions decreased significantly during the coronavirus blockade, as manufacturing and transportation activity fell off a cliff, that is not the case for methane, according to Jackson.
“We are still heating our houses and buildings, and agriculture continues to grow,” he said.
Africa and the Middle East, China, and South Asia and Oceania experienced the largest increases in methane emissions, with the United States close behind.
In the United States, the increase has been driven by the increasing use of natural gas. This reduces CO2 emissions by offsetting the use of coal, but releases more methane.
Europe is the only region where methane emissions have decreased, thanks in part to greater efficiency in agriculture and reduced emissions from chemical manufacturing.
“Policies and better management have reduced emissions from landfills, manure and other sources here in Europe. People are also eating less beef and more poultry and fish,” said Marielle Saunois of the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin in France, lead author of the article in Earth System Science Data.
The largest increases in emissions were observed in the tropical and temperate regions.
The researchers say it is difficult to determine where the natural methane emissions come from, compared to man-made emissions.
To reduce methane emissions, we need to reduce the use of fossil fuels and control emissions from leaking pipes and wells, the researchers noted. With Jackson optimistic that drones, satellites and aircraft monitoring wells will lead to great progress in the field in the next five years.
We also have to implement new ways to grow and eat food, the team said, for example, supplementing cattle feed with algae that can reduce the amount of methane evoked by cows.
On Tuesday, the fast food chain Burger King announced a plan to improve the diet of their cows by adding lemongrass to their diet.
This change in diet will reduce methane emissions from cows by 33% per day, the company said.
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