More than 200,000 deaths occurred in the U.S. by 2020 than would be expected according to trends from previous years, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control.
The figure includes all deaths that have occurred since March 15, including the roughly 162,000 who have been found dead from COVID-19 since the pandemic began in the United States.
But the count of 200,000 is more than 50,000 deaths higher than the toll of those who died due to identified cases of COVID-19, suggesting that many more died either from the disease or from the disorder associated with the pandemic.
The CDC tracks observed deaths week-by-week in the U.S., based on regular reports from state health departments. In May, the agency published an online tool that shows the data it receives and compares it to estimates of how many deaths in the U.S. would occur based on trends from previous years, adjusted for population changes.
The tool takes delays in reporting, and includes a formula that adjusts the current death rate to compensate.
The estimate – known as excessive mortality – allows epidemiologists to diagnose the full death toll from a pandemic. The deaths of those who died from COVID-19 without being diagnosed, who were waiting in a long-term ambulance or hospital, or who were undergoing treatment for curative conditions, were all covered by the metric.
Epidemiologists see excessive death as one of the best ways to capture the course of a pandemic in relative real-time. It takes weeks for the CDC to collect preliminary numbers of deaths for each state, but the agency does not publish definitive, cause-by-cause mortality statistics until at least two years after the fact.
“This approach makes it possible to assess the overall mortality effects of the pandemic at various locations,” explained an article in The Lancet published in May. “Of crucial importance would be the count of deaths combined by all causes, thus side-stepping issues of what a death is or is not to do with COVID-19.”
The same method of calculating excessive deaths was used after Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico, allowing public health officials to measure the true toll of a disaster that discharged the island from emergency services.
The horrific milestone of 200,000 comes after two months that saw cases grow in the country, with major outbreaks in Arizona, Texas and Florida.
Cheese growth in those states appears to have slowed, while deaths – a lagging indicator – continue to mount.
At the same time, COVID-19 – and reports of deaths by diagnosed cases thereof – continue. According to an estimate by the New York Times, only the states of Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia have kept the death rates consistent with previous years.
