The coronavirus infected the elections.
The virus is the main problem for voters, more than half of them disapprove of the way President Trump is handling it, and they increasingly trust Joe Biden to do better. That keeps Biden ahead in the presidential race, according to a Fox News poll of registered voters.
Biden leads by 8 points over Trump, 49-41 percent.
That advantage is outside the margin of error. However, none of the candidates receives 50 percent support and 10 percent are undecided / endorse someone else, and the race has dwindled since June, when the former vice president rose 12 points (50-38 percent). .
There is a big gender gap, as Trump is 5 points ahead of men, while Biden is up 19 points among women. Biden also leads among blacks (+64), Hispanics (+30), millennials (+22), suburban voters (+11), and independents (+11).
Seven percent of those who approve of Trump’s job performance endorse Biden.
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Whites with a college degree (+3) and without a degree opt for Trump (+9). It is also the choice among white evangelical Christians (+43), rural voters (+9), and older adults (+1). Last month, seniors went for Biden for 10.
Biden is preferred over Trump among extremely motivated voters (+8 points), those extremely likely to vote (+9) and those who feel it is extremely important that his candidate win (+13).
However, the number of Biden supporters who are extremely likely to vote drops 25 points if the virus is hitting so hard in November that, for example, closing restaurants. Because the drop would be just 16 points among Trump supporters, that places Biden’s lead at just 3 points over the president in that still raging coronavirus scenario.
The virus is a campaign issue, but it could also be a factor, such as bad weather, that reduces participation.
Meanwhile, in contrast to 2016, when voters viewed both candidates as unpleasant, Biden gets a net favorable rating of +11: 54 percent view him favorably versus 43 percent unfavorably.
For Trump, it is 43 percent favorable versus 56 percent unfavorable. That gives him a net of -13 points. In fact, almost half, 47 percent, have a “strongly” unfavorable opinion compared to Biden’s 31 percent.
Voters believe Trump lacks key traits for the Oval Office: Fewer than half believe he has the mental strength (43 percent), intelligence (42 percent), and judgment (40 percent) to effectively serve as President. For reference, 36 percent felt they had the necessary judgment in October 2016, less than a month before their electoral victory.
Biden beats Trump by every measure: 47 percent trust his mental strength, 51 percent believe he has the intelligence, and 52 percent say he has the trial.
It should be noted that 50 percent avoid both candidates for their mental solidity. Those over 65 think that Trump has it by a margin of 1 point and that Biden is missing 3 points.
The biggest difference in traits is in compassion: 56 percent believe Biden has it compared to Trump’s 36 percent.
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All of that helps explain why they trust Biden more to do a better job of race relations (+21) and the coronavirus (+17 points) than Trump. Last month, Biden trusted the virus more by 9 points. Both are trusted equally in the economy (Biden +1). It was a 3-point Trump lead in May.
29% classify coronavirus as the number one problem facing the country. That exceeds 15 percent that the economy cites and 10 percent that says race relations.
Eighty-six percent are concerned about the spread of the coronavirus, and the number saying the virus “is not under control” increased 18 points from last month, from 33 percent to 51 percent.
The president’s ratings are underwater at 13 points in the pandemic (43 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove) and 21 points in race relations (35-56 percent).
His grades in the economy were divided 47-47. That’s lower than a high approval rating of 56 percent in January and it’s just the fourth time it hasn’t received positive ratings on the subject. Currently, only 26 percent say they are better than they were four years ago, and most, 69 percent, negatively rate the economy.
Trump’s overall job rating is upside-down by 9 points: 45 percent approve and 54 percent disapprove. Last month, it was 44-55 percent. His best scores, 49-49 percent, came in April.
Voters favor a more aggressive response to the virus than the president.
Majorities favor a national stay-in-place order for everyone except essential workers (59 percent) and a national order to use masks for interior spaces (71 percent).
Sixty-three percent are in favor of allowing Americans to vote by mail during the pandemic. Democrats (82 percent) and independents (60 percent) like the idea, while Republicans are divided (43 for, 47 against).
Two-thirds want children to attend public schools this fall in person, to some degree. That includes the 15 percent who think their public schools should reopen completely as usual, the 21 percent who prefer to open with social distancing and masks, and the 31 percent who want a combination of presence and remote control. Twenty-five percent would prefer schools to be completely remote.
Parents and non-parents have similar views, but moms and dads with kids at home see things differently. Dads are more likely than mothers to favor some kind of reopening (80 vs. 54 percent). Moms are more inclined than fathers to admit that they are completely remote (37 vs. 15 percent).
There is also a partisan gap. More Republicans (84 percent) than Democrats (55 percent) say that schools should reopen to some degree, while almost four times as many Democrats (38 percent) as Republicans (10 percent) prefer completely at a distance.
By a 62-32 percent margin, voters are in favor of continuing the additional $ 600 / week unemployment benefit that Congress approved in response to the pandemic. The majority of Democrats (78 percent) and a large minority of Republicans (46 percent) are in favor of extending it.
More than twice as many voters think candidates should only host virtual events right now (62 percent) as they say it’s okay to campaign in front of crowds (28 percent).
Pollpourri
The number predicting Trump will be reelected has dropped 11 points since February. At the time, 56 percent thought they would win. Now 45 percent think yes. The decline in re-election expectations comes from both Democrats (-13 points) and Republicans (-9).
Overall, 61 percent are satisfied with their candidate elections, but 33 percent think the ballot should include a “none of the above” option. More Trump supporters (73 percent) than Biden supporters (62 percent) are happy with their elections.
Most supporters of both Biden (49 percent) and Trump (47 percent) say “there is no chance” that they will change their vote. However, more of those who support Trump (15 percent) than Biden (9 percent) say there is a strong possibility that they will change their minds.
Much more approves of the work that infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci (74 percent) is doing with the coronavirus than Trump’s performance (43 percent). In addition, 44 percent approve of Fauci “strongly,” compared to 37 percent in June.
Trump first wore a mask in public on July 11. Eighty-one percent of voters report wearing a mask all or most of the time in public, up from 72 percent in May. Ninety percent of Democrats and 71 percent of Republicans wear a mask. Six percent of Republicans never wear one, up from 14 percent in May. Among Democrats, 1 percent say never, below 3 percent.
Overall, 80 percent have a favorable opinion of people who wear masks (June 13-16, 2020).
Conducted July 12-15, 2020, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews with 1,104 randomly chosen registered voters across the country who spoke to interviewers Live on both landlines and cell phones. The poll has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all registered voters.
Fox News’s Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
