The Colorado Rockies are coming off a sad 91 loss season in 2019, and a bit was expected of them in 2020. However, more than a quarter of the way through the (shortened) season, the Rockies are in first place in the NL West and have one of the best records in all baseball. While the mighty Dodgers have been relegated to the division, it seems unlikely the Rockies have indeed positioned themselves, and there are reasons to think they could notch their third postseason in appearance in the last four years. Let’s take a closer look at why that is the case.
1. Their record is supported by underlying indicators
At this writing, the Rockies are 11-5, which scaled to the usual 162 games would come at a rate of 111 wins. The Rockies currently have a round difference of plus-27, which is only second to that of the Dodgers in entire MLB. If you score runs and use allowed runs, you can determine what a team record should be, and in the Rockies’ case, they should actually be 11-5.
Thus, we can also look at the BaseRuns standings available from FanGraphs, which correct for some of the sequencing and clustering effects inherent in run Differential. Basically, it is a measure of how good a team is at checking the fundamental outcomes of the boss pitcher encounter. It yields what the record of a team is soene be based on core competencies. Per BaseRuns, Colorado has, yes, just played as an 11-5 team.
None of this guarantees that the Rockies will continue to win on such a clip – they probably will not continue with a .688 winning percentage – but it does mean that their success so far has not been driven by luck.
A start like this is a lot to make in a short season
Once you are painfully aware, the 2020 season has shortened to 60 games due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. That means every game is much more important than in normal times, and by extension moves a hot start like the one the Rockies enjoyed the needle much more than it would be in a season 162 game. That 11-5 start lasts more than a quarter of the regular season, as noted. In business related terms, this season the SportsLine Projection Model (@SportsLine on Twitter) gave the Rockies a 17.5 percent chance of being one of 16 playoff teams. Now, however, SportsLine gives the Rockies roughly a two in three chance to make it to the postseason. That, enough said, is an enormous increase after 16 games. That’s what happens when hot start meets short schedule.
3. Their success is rotation-driven, and that can be sustainable
Currently, the Rockies rank sixth in full MLB with a rotation ERA of 3.36, and that is despite the fact that so far they have played half of their 16 games at a mile above sea level. Of course, Colorado starters are unlikely to perform an ERA that is low for the balance of the season, but there is reason to believe that the rotation could remain one of baseballs for the 2020 balance.
Take first their success at FIP level. In case you are not familiar, FIP stands for fields of independent pitching, and it is scaled to resemble ERA, but precisely reflects the outcomes that have nothing to do with fielding – that is, strikeouts, walks and home walks are allowed. Basically, this is what a pitcher ERA would look like if you gave him average defensive support and average luck. In the case of the Rockies, their rotation FIP this season is 3.91. Yes, that suggests they were a bit lucky to have that 3.36 ERA, but not unordinately so. That 3.91 mark would be the second-best FIP in Rockies franchise history. The thing about FIP is that it often predicts future ERAs better than ERA itself does. Sampling size limitation is applicable in this case, but so far the Rockies’ rotation has been projected as a true sub-4.00 ERA unit, which is impressive in light of the Coors Field effect.
Like – this is the most important consideration – their rotation has the talent to stop this. At the front, German Marquez has excellent play. He throws five pitches for strikes, has an excellent speed ball speed, and bounces on the secondary pitches to attack fighters from both hands. At the age of 25 and in his fifth MLB season, he could be primed to take the next step. Jon Gray – despite Monday’s disastrous start against the D-Backs – is also a promising presence. He is a former no. 3 general choice and highly regarded perspective that has a career ERA + of 111 and a career FIP of 3.76. His career K / BB ratio of 3.15 is an impressive mark, especially for a pitcher who calls Coors home. Grey’s fastball slider approach has done him more often than not.
As for native Denver Kyle Freeland, he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young ballot in 2018 before going bad last season. Following the rough numbers of a season ago, Freeland rebuilt his supply and, as The Ringer’s Michael Baumann recently remarked, significantly reduced his fastball use. So far, the results have been very promising in terms of running prevention and limiting hard contact. Behind him, Antonio Senzatela has been a balance an average starting pitcher over the balance of his career, with some stronger peripheral devices than that. That’s more than adequate for a fourth starter, and especially so as the command-and-control stride, he’s made early in 2020 with lightning.
4. This grid mix has had previous success
The Rockies under manager Bud Black made the playoffs in 2017 and 2018 before slipping to fourth place in the NL West last season. However, the Rox did not have much roster fitness in that span. For example, still on the roster of 2017 are the top four performers in terms of WAR – Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Marquez and Freeland. Overall, seven of the top nine WARs from that year still play for Colorado. As of 2018, the top four WARs are also back – Freeland, Arenado, Trevor Story and Marquez – and six of the top 10 are still round.
In addition to that steep core, the Rockies have some young to young ish players – all considered very different in varying degrees – who may want to make up their core staff. That subset includes names like David Dahl, Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hamson, Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia and current fifth starter Ryan Castellani. Airy ceilings are not necessarily to be found in that group, but the potential for solidity around that core of Arenado, Story, Blackmon and the first four of the rotation is certain.
