A Washington DC-based internist and former faculty member at Harvard Medical School has claimed that the idea that herd immunity can delay the coronavirus pandemic is an “illusion” after a 50-year-old patient he was infected a second time with COVID-19.
“During her first infection, my patient experienced a mild cough and sore throat,” explained Dr. Clay Ackerly in an op-ed for Vox. “His second infection, by contrast, was marked by high fever, shortness of breath and hypoxia, which resulted in multiple trips to the hospital.
“It is possible, but unlikely, that my patient had a single infection that lasted three months,” added Dr. Ackerly. “Some Covid-19 patients (now called ‘long haulers’) appear to have persistent infections and symptoms.
“However, my patient cleared her infection (she had two negative PCR tests after her first infection) and felt healthy for almost six weeks.”
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Experts generally estimate that 70 to 90 percent of a population must be immune to a contagious disease to achieve herd immunity, either through vaccination or other exposure to infection.
However, a recent study in Spain, one of the countries most affected by the pandemic, found that only five percent of respondents had antibodies against the coronavirus. On a regional basis, the percentage ranged from less than three percent in the coastal regions to more than 10 percent in the areas around Madrid.
Herd immunity is when a virus can no longer be easily spread because enough people are immune to it. That reduces the chances of the virus jumping from person to person and reaching those who have not yet been infected.
People can become immune to certain viruses after surviving the infection or being vaccinated. Generally, at least 70 percent of a population must be immune to achieve herd immunity. But the duration of immunity varies by virus, and it’s not yet known how long COVID-19 survivors could have that protection.
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In the UK, a study by a team at King’s College London found that levels of antibodies against the coronavirus drop dramatically in patients three months after becoming infected.
“The infection tends to give you the best scenario for an antibody response, so if your infection is giving you levels of antibody that decrease in two to three months, the vaccine will potentially do the same,” said Dr. Katie Doores, The study’s author told the Guardian: “People may need a booster and a single injection may not be enough.”
Ackerly concluded his article by warning that if his patient is not … an exception, but demonstrates the rule, then many people could catch Covid-19 more than once and with unpredictable severity. “
“The herd’s natural immunity is almost certainly out of our reach,” he warned. “We cannot place our hopes on it.
