Florida’s death will double in the next two months, projection says

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Florida is approaching 8,000 deaths from COVID-19, and according to one prominent projection, that total will double by early October and 19,000 by Dec. 1.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on Thursday released those new projections.

They predict that Florida’s death toll from the novel coronavirus will reach 19,358 by December 1. If face masks were to become universal, that projection would drop by more than 3,500 to 15,765, the IHME says.

On the other hand, a delay in security restrictions could increase Florida’s death to 61,938 by Dec. 1, the projection says.

Nationally, the IHME model has increased the death toll from COVID-19 from its current 160,000 to more than 295,000 by December 1. Their projection drops to 228,000 with universal masks and increases to as high as 391,000 with a reduction in restrictions.

Dr Christopher Murray, the IHME director, said there are fewer transmissions of the novel coronavirus in Florida – as well as other hotspots in Arizona, California and Texas – but the death toll is rising and will continue to rise in the next week or two. He says the decline in infections seems to be driven by more responsible behavior through the public and local mandates for mask use and the closure of bars and restaurants.

“The behavior of the public had a direct correlation with the transmission of the virus and in turn the number of deaths,” Murray said. “Such efforts to act more prudently and responsibly will be an important aspect of COVID-19 forecasting and the up-and-down patterns in individual states in the coming months and into years to come.”

Florida on Thursday reached 7,747 confirmed dead residents of COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. Last week, the state set records for new resident deaths reported Tuesday (186), Wednesday (216), Thursday (253) and Friday (257).

One of the factors to be considered in the projected rise in the coming months is that the transmission of the virus is likely to increase in the winter.

“Our estimate of the seasonal effect remains large, implying that we should expect to see a substantial increase in transmission, all other things being equal, during the winter months,” the IHME said in its report. “The large number of predicted deaths we estimate in the reference scenario in November, nearly 45,000 deaths in one month, is substantially driven by this seasonal increase in transmission potential along with an assumption of further relaxation of mandates.”

The IHME says that for the purpose of its model, they assume that half of the school districts in each state will conduct online learning only for the coming school year.

“If data appear on actual school patterns, we will include them in our future versions of forecasts,” Murray said. “We recognize that, if we wear masks, the likely limitations on after-school activities, and the potential for some parents to participate in school-related functions, may make our estimated impact of school opening too pessimistic.”

Based on the University of Washington, the IHME has been one of the most prominent predictors of the COVID-19 outlook, among which it is cited by the White House, but it has also been criticized for how accurately its statistical models unfold .