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The 2020 Tour de France abounds with big, juicy stories, and throughout the month we follow the battle between heavyweight between Team Ineos Grenadiers and Jumbo-Visma, the progress of the Tour’s COVID-19 protocols, and the ever-present antics of Peter Sagan.
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Guess what? There are plenty of other stories to follow this year as well. Here are five less than obvious stories to follow at the Tour de France 2020:
Breakaways against the forest
The 2019 Tour de France was a particularly big edition for riders in those often damn early breakaways. By my count, eight of the 21 wins of the race were won by riders who were part of the early movement of the day.
Particularly memorable outbursts came from Dylan Teuns (Bahrain-McLaren), Thomas De Gendt (Lotto Soudal), Daryl Impey (Mitchelton-Scott), and Matteo Trentin (CCC Team). Simon Yates won twice from the break, and Nairo Quintana (Movistar) and Vincenzo Nibali both added breakout wins to their respective tallies.
That’s the de baroudeurs of the peloton enjoying this year so much success? On paper, there are enough stages that allow for an early movement. In my estimation, stages 17 of this year’s 21 stages are friendly for the time being, with 10 of those stages – again, by my estimation – being particularly good days for a time to succeed. Moreover, many of the sport’s top breakers are here: the Gendt, Tiesj Bennoot (Sunweb), Maximilian Schachmann (Bora-Hansgrohe), and others.
There are, of course, a few dynamics that influence the success of these outbreaks. There are less heavy sprinters in this race than usual, and only a handful of true sprint stages. So, sprint teams may be less inclined to set the pace this year. If the GC battle then focuses on only a handful of riders, Ineos Grenadiers and Jumbo Visma may be tempted to let go of early moves. However, mapping out the success of the outbreak is a great story to follow in 2020.
Sprinters against the cut
The 2018 Tour de France was particularly cruel for the fast men of the peloton. As the race entered the Alps, more and more heavy sprinters were eliminated by the daily time cut of the Tour. Mark Cavendish, Mark Renshaw, Marcel Kittel, Dylan Groenewegen, Fernando Gaviria, Rick Zabel all left the race early.
The time saving of the trip is calculated by an arc system whereby stages are classified into one of six coefficients; the time cut for that day is then determined to be a percentage of the winner’s time, and that percentage depends on the winner’s almost speed.
Short and punitive stages – specifically stages that fall in succession – are particularly cruel to the sprinters. This year’s Tour has a formidable block through the mountains that forms a major obstacle. Take a look at stages 13 through stage 18. That’s where I predict that more than a few sprinters will be eliminated by cutting time or dropping out.
The lack of pure sprint stages, plus this mountainous route, are making this year’s sprinter lineup so thin. Peter Sagan tops the list, including Sam Bennett (Deceuninck – Quick-Step), Elia Viviani (Cofidis Solutions Credits), Alexander Kristoff (UAE-Team Emirates), Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Soudal), Giacomo Nizzolo (NTT Pro Cycling), and Bryan Coquard (B&B Hotels – Vital Concept p / b KTM).
Guy Niv makes history
Guy Niv of Israel Start-Up Nation will not win the 2020 Tour de France. However, Niv is set to make his name in the history books of the race, becoming the first Israeli rider to take part in the race. Niv was one of several Israeli riders on the roster of the team that was struggling to make the Tour team and make history. He is the reigning Israeli national champion in the individual time trial, so it is a safe assumption that the other rider was in battle Guy Sagiv, the reigning Israeli champion on the road.
Niv has ridden the Giro d’Italia twice – he dropped out in 2018 and finished the race last year. I plan to follow his progress in the 2020 Tour de France, to see if he reaches the finish line in Paris.
B&B Hotels-Vital Concept p / b KTM’s Tourdebut
Boy, that’s one slap in the face of a team name, right? The French Pro Continental team that will henceforth be referred to as Team B&B will make its Tour de France debut just three seasons after it was launched. Team B&B has taken over the place that was held by stalwarts Circus-Wanty Gobert of the Belgian Tour. And like Wanty, Team B&B is meant to live and die in the doomed outbursts of the day.
But hey, at least they have one of the sharpest kits in the peloton. And, to be honest, the French team is hardly a set of no-names – it abounds with WorldTour talent. Bryan Coquard, the fierce sprinter, will direct the sprint stages. Pierre Rolland, a former candidate for the yellow jersey, is promoting the selection, and his teammates include Belgian classic star Jens Debusschere, formerly of Lotto-Soudal, and Cyril Gautier, an eight-time Tour veteran.
Also in the selection is Kévin Reza, whose family comes from Guadeloupe and is the only Black rider in this year’s race.
In a column published this week, Drs. Marlon Moncrieffe, who studied the role of Black riders in British cycling, asked whether Reza would kneel as one of the other riders in the race and raise a fist in solidarity with the Black Lives Matter movement. , It’s another storyline I plan to follow.
Media access
Of course, I have an interest in following this storyline, because media access to riders helps news outlets function as velonews.com does. Still, I’m very curious to see if teams and riders during the race make an effort to talk to TV cameras and journalists, instead of the two-strike rule and reports of COVID-19 outbreaks across France. I would not be surprised if some riders just picked up the media this year.
The rules for media access in the middle of COVID-19 are Byzantine and arcane, and I will not take up any more space than necessary to explain every detail below. Admittedly, the usual interview opportunities at the team buses and past the finish line are gone this year, to eliminate most of the contact that riders have with journalists.
How will this lack of access affect the way big stories are handled this year? Which stories will filter out the race, and which will not? This Tour will tie multiple bowling balls to those reporters at the race. The race always does it – remember Rohan Dennis stepped off his bike last year, the eviction of Peter Sagan in 2017, or Chris Froome pushing Mont Ventoux. In those cases, however, reporters could search multiple sources and attack each story from different angles. That may not be the case this year, and I’m curious to see how it affects the major events that are likely to occur.
