People in colorful dresses sell and buy products at a street market in Osogbo, Nigeria at dusk.
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Decreasing fertility rates will likely mean that almost all countries have reduced populations by the end of the century, according to a new study, triggering “major changes” in global economic power.
A new report in the peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet, published Tuesday, expects the world’s population to peak at 9.7 billion by 2064, and the number of people worldwide is forecast to drop to 8.8 thousand. millions by 2100.
The analysis says that improvements in access to modern contraception and the education of girls and women could underpin the “widespread” and “sustained” decline in global fertility.
It means that, in the absence of liberal immigration policies, 183 out of 195 countries on the planet will not be able to maintain current populations by the end of the century.
The populations of 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain, are forecast to see their respective populations shrink by more than half, while 34 other countries, including China, will see a drop of more than 25%.
In contrast, sub-Saharan Africa’s population is projected to triple over the course of the century, according to research, to 3.07 billion in 2100, up from an estimated level of 1.03 billion in 2017.
North Africa and the Middle East are the only other regions that are projected to have a larger population at 2,100 compared to 2017.
“This important investigation outlines a future that we must urgently plan for,” said Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, in a press release.
“It offers insight into radical changes in geopolitical power, challenges myths about immigration, and underscores the importance of protecting and strengthening women’s sexual and reproductive rights.”
“Africa and the Arab world will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will regress in their influence,” Horton continued. “By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the United States as dominant powers. This will truly be a new world, one that we should be preparing for today.”
Migration becomes ‘a necessity’
The research, which uses data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, also warns of major changes in the global age structure.
People over the age of 80 are expected to outnumber those under 5 by two to one by 2100, as fertility declines and life expectancy increases worldwide.
Without a doubt, the study predicts that the number of children under the age of 5 will decrease by 41% to 401 million in 2100, compared to 681 million in 2017. Meanwhile, the number of people over 80 will increase sixfold to 866 million, compared to 141 million.
Lowering working-age population rates could lead to a dramatic change in the size of economies, according to the research, with China poised to replace the US with the world’s largest gross domestic product (GDP) to 2035.
Workers work at a car seat manufacturing factory in the Lintong district of Xi’an, northwestern China, Shaanxi province, on February 26, 2020.
Xinhua | Liu Xiao | fake pictures
The US is expected to regain first place by 2098, if immigration continues to maintain the country’s workforce, and as China sees a rapid decline in population from 2050 onwards.
India is believed to be one of the few, even if only, the major powers in Asia that will protect its working-age population throughout the century.
As a result, the GDP ranking is forecast to rise to the third, from the seventh. At the same time, sub-Saharan Africa is promoting itself to become “an increasingly powerful continent in the geopolitical stage as its population increases.”
Nigeria stands out because it is expected to be the only country among the top 10 most populous nations in the world to see its working-age population grow to 2100, supporting rapid economic growth as it climbs to ninth in the world ranking of the GDP, compared to 23 place in 2017.
The UK, Germany and France are expected to remain in the top 10 of the world’s highest GDP at the beginning of the century, while Italy and Spain are projected to fall to 25 and 28, respectively, reflecting a much smaller population decline. higher.
Professor Ibrahim Abubakar of University College London, who was not involved in the research, said that if the study’s findings were “even half accurate”, migration would become “a necessity for all nations and not an option.”
“The positive impacts of migration on health and economies are known globally. The choice we face is whether to improve health and wealth by allowing for planned population movement or to end up with a subclass of imported and unstable societies, “he added.
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