.jpg)
The crisis in Belarus, which erupted after President Alexander Lukashenko won an August 9 election and brutally broke out in subsequent protests, has divided the EU.
Some member states, in particular Belarus’ immediate neighbors Lithuania and Poland, are pushing for a stronger response from Brussels, backed by Belarusian opposition calling for a new election and the release of political prisoners.
Meanwhile, German statements have appeared more cautious and the European Commissioner for France, Thierry Breton, even said that Belarus is not part of Europe.
The divisions have reinforced the feeling that the crisis has put the EU in a tight spot.
Analysts say that if the bloc remains too passive, its commitment to maintaining a fair value – such as the right to vote in a fair election and to live free from arbitrary violence by the state – could be called into question.
Meanwhile, a more proactive EU response could jeopardize the risk of a destabilizing intervention by Russia, as Moscow felt its interests were being challenged in a country where it has long had much political and economic sway.
“Europeans need to run a cordon over Belarus,” wrote Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali (and a columnist for POLITICO).
The EU must clearly signal that if President Vladimir Putin were to move militarily in Lukashenko’s defense, the bloc would be ready to impose meaningful sanctions in the event of a violation of international law, she said. “Yet it must do so without turning it into a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
So far, Europe has been treaded carefully.
Following a video conference on 19 August, the European Council issued a statement denying the outcome of the elections, but stopped demanding a new vote.
The Council said it would impose “short” sanctions on a “substantial number” of individuals responsible for violence, repression and the falsification of election results – but this could only happen in September.
Lithuania has since moved rapidly and has offered refuge to Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who ran against Lukashenko in the contested election before being forced to flee her country.
Lithuania has also voted through its own set of sanctions on Belarusian leaders.
“We have to issue sanctions, we have to make it clear that there is no other way, just new elections,” said Foreign Minister Linkevičius.
Linkevičius said he also urged EU payments previously earmarked for Belarus to be put on hold.
“Any assistance to the government, or through the government now, is in my opinion not possible,” he said.
Lithuania and Belarus share much historical experience as existing territories of major political entities, from the 13th-century Kingdom of Lithuania to the 20th-century Soviet Union.
Since the collapse of the USSR, the two countries have been on different routes with Lithuania, a country of about 2.8 million, and have developed a tradition of free and fair elections and respect for human rights, while Belarus, a country of 9.5 million, is closer was moved to an outright dictatorship under Lukashenko.
During this exchange, Lithuania sought to support the civil society of its larger neighbor, to offer its refuge to its dissidents and a new home to its forbidden institutions.
When the Minsk-based European Humanities University was closed by Lukashenko’s government in 2004, he moved to Vilnius, 180 kilometers to the northwest, where he continued to offer liberal studies to students from Belarus.
As the August 9 election drew to a close, Lithuania warned of the oppression that might ensue and its people had sought moral support since the election, forming a human chain from Vilnius to the border with Belarus. Sunday and waving protest flags.
Protest balloons hovering over Belarus from Lithuania were shot down by Belarusian air force.
Linkevičius said that Belarusians, like all people, deserve a decent life and are consulted by their leaders, which their current president does not seem to do.
“Definitely we can not tell them what to do, but they deserve at least respect and listen,” he said.
