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November 25, 2020
CAIRO – As Ethiopia teeters on the brink of civil war, the Ethiopian army threatened on November 22 to send tanks to Mekelle, the capital of the northern region of Tigray. He warned civilians that he could bomb the city, inhabited by 500,000 people.
“The next phases are the decisive part of the operation, which consists of surrounding Mekelle with tanks, ending the battle in the mountainous areas and moving towards the fields,” military spokesman Colonel Dejene Tsegaye told the Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation.
The Ethiopian army took the city of Adigrat, one of the largest cities in the region, and the villages of Axum and Adwa on November 20. The fighting killed hundreds of people and displaced tens of thousands to neighboring Sudan.
On November 24, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said that more than 600 people were killed on November 9 in Mai Kadra, a city in the Tigray region, by armed gangs linked to Ethiopia. the commission report discovered that the youth groups known as Samri, in coordination with a local militia and police forces, “carr[ied] conduct door-to-door raids and kill[ed] hundreds of people ”according to their ethnic origin.
Despite international calls by the African Union to stop the fighting and US and UN warnings of a humanitarian catastrophe, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Al-Ahmed rejected calls for talks or an end to the escalation.
As the conflict in Ethiopia escalated, the United Arab Emirates emerged as Ahmed’s supporters in his war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
On November 6, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan commented on the Ethiopia crisis during a phone call with Josep Borrell, the UN High Representative for Foreign Affairs. He said: “The UAE supports friendly countries in their war against terrorism and extremism,” referring to the UAE’s support for the Ethiopian government against the TPLF.
On November 15, TPLF spokesman Getachew Rida accused the UAE of supporting the Ethiopian government with drones in its war against the region. He added that these planes are launched from the Emirati military base in Assab, Eritrea.
On November 19, Ethiopia’s Ambassador to the UAE Suleiman Dedefo met Reem al-Hashimy, the UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation, and promised the UAE to end the the military operation against the TFLP “as soon as possible”.
Eritrean writer and analyst Shifa al-Afari told Al-Monitor that Emiratis’ support for Ethiopia could be expected, as control of Ethiopia would guarantee great influence on the continent.
The UAE has 92 investment projects in Ethiopia in the sectors of agriculture, industry, real estate, healthcare and mining.
On March 20, 2019, Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Saleh, Undersecretary of the UAE Ministry of Foreign Trade and Industry Economy, said during the UAE-Ethiopia Business Forum that UAE exports to Ethiopia in 2018 amounted to $ 200 million. , an increase of 46% compared to 2017.
On July 8, 2019, Ahmed announced that his country will send 50,000 Ethiopian workers to the United Arab Emirates as part of a program to reduce unemployment in Ethiopia.
On February 27, the Khalifa Fund for Business Development concluded a $ 100 million agreement with the Ethiopian Ministry of Finance to support and finance micro, small and medium projects in Ethiopia.
In an interview with Al-Ain News on April 6, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Gedu Andargachew said: “There are several countries that supported transformation and reforms in Ethiopia, but the UAE played a leading role in this sense”. He continued: “It is impossible to estimate the support provided by the UAE to Ethiopia, especially in the economic field.”
Afari said that the other reason behind Emirati military support for Ethiopia is to counter the TFLP’s influence on opposition groups in Eritrea that could affect neighboring countries where the UAE has military bases.
On November 15, Rida announced that the TPLF had targeted facilities in Eritrea, including the airport in the capital, Asmara.
Abu Dhabi has long-standing ties with Eritrea and, since 2015, the UAE has had a military base in the port of Assab, its first military installation of its kind abroad. Eritrea and Ethiopia signed a peace agreement in 2018 after years of conflict. In October 2019, Ethiopian Prime Minister Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize for his work in brokering the agreement. Addis Ababa and Asmara are currently on the same side against the TPLF.
When asked about the impact of the Ethiopian conflict on the Ethiopian Renaissance Great Dam (GERD) problem, Afari said the situation is difficult for the Ethiopian prime minister to control. Through this aggression, he said, Ahmed paved the way for foreign intervention, undermining his position in the GERD crisis and giving Egypt a pressure card to use.
Afari said Emirati support for Ethiopia in its war against the TPLF could trigger a crisis between the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Egypt could intervene to support the TPLF, putting Cairo and Abu Dhabi in indirect conflict.
In a Nov. 19 article for Foreign Policy, Alex de Waal, director of the World Peace Foundation, predicted chaos in Northeast Africa and said other countries are likely to intervene in the current conflict due to foreign intervention from Eritrea. and the United Arab Emirates.
However, Hatem Bashat, former Undersecretary of the General Intelligence Service and a member of the African Affairs Committee in the Egyptian Parliament, told Al-Monitor that relations between Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are strong and based on convergent points of view. on many regional issues. The main one is to confront the Turkish-Qatari alliance in the Middle East.
Bashat added: “The UAE’s support for the Ethiopian regime is not only aimed at creating areas of influence in Africa, but also seeks to preserve its interests in Ethiopia. “Egypt is present in Africa and will deal with Ethiopia in a way that suits its interests. He will try to use many letters, including Eritrea, to pressure Ethiopia, as Eritrea is playing a major role in Ethiopia’s internal conflict. “
On November 18, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry met with his Eritrean counterpart Othman Saleh and Yamani Jabr Ab, political adviser to the Eritrean President, to discuss the situation.
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